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Preview: Miami Open: Jessica Pegula vs. Alexandra Eala - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Miami Open semi-final between Jessica Pegula and Alexandra Eala, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Alexandra Eala achieved the most significant victory of her early career by defeating Iga Swiatek at the Miami Open on Wednesday, setting up a maiden WTA 1000 semi-final against Jessica Pegula on Thursday.

Eala, 19, is the first player from the Philippines to reach a semi-final at this level, and the teenage wild card aims to defeat a home player seeking to be third-time lucky after prior last-four disappointments.


Match preview

Alexandra Eala reacts at the Miami Open on March 26, 2025© Iconsport

Records continue to tumble for Eala in Miami following another straight-sets win at the fourth WTA 1000 tournament of 2025.

Defeating eight-time tour champion Jelena Ostapenko and 10-time titlist Madison Keys in the second and third rounds was one thing, but eliminating Swiatek, a five-time Grand Slam winner and 22-time champion on the women's tour, was remarkable.

Outplaying the flustered Pole in the first set and roaring back from a 4-2 deficit in the second to secure a 6-2, 7-5 victory meant that the 19-year-old bested a third Grand Slam winner in Florida, following wins over Ostapenko and Keys.

These successes have seen Eala emulate Justine Henin (2010) and Victoria Azarenka (2018) as the third wild card to reach the last four since the tournament began in 1985; however, Henin and Azarenka were returning world No. 1s, while Eala is making her debut in Florida.

A surreal run has also seen the Filipina follow in the footsteps of Mary Joe Fernandez (1988) and Danielle Collins (2018) by making her first WTA semi-final in Miami; now, this fearless teenager aims for another top-10 victory by stunning Pegula.

Jessica Pegula reacts at the Miami Open on March 26, 2025© Iconsport

Although the world No. 4 dropped a set in Wednesday night's late match, winning 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-2 against Emma Raducanu, the 31-year-old's motivation to progress to a third Miami Open semi-final was unmistakable.

Pegula's performance in the first set was nearly flawless, with the American No. 2 hitting winners and intermittently outmanoeuvring the resurgent Brit to clinch the opener.

While a decider seemed inevitable in the second set, Pegula still fought her way to a tie-break from 5-2 down, gaining crucial momentum heading into the third against an opponent who was struggling physically.

Outlasting Raducanu over two hours and 25 minutes sets the fourth seed against the No. 140-ranked Eala, with the American player aiming to be rewarded for her consistency on the hard courts of Miami, where she has reached three semi-finals in four years.

Having previously suffered straight-set losses to Swiatek in 2022 and Elena Rybakina the following year, Pegula, one of three players to reach 10 or more last-four contests at 1000-level events since the start of 2020 — her 11 trailing only Swiatek (19) and Aryna Sabalenka (14) — hopes to rectify the disappointments of 2022 and 2023 to advance to her first title match in Florida.


Tournament so far

Jessica Pegula:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Bernarda Pera 6-4 6-4
Third round: vs. Anna Kalinskaya 6-7[3] 6-2 7-6[2]
Round of 16: vs. Marta Kostyuk 6-2 6-3
Quarter-final: vs. Emma Raducanu 6-4 6-7[3] 6-2

Alexandra Eala:

First round: vs. Katie Volynets 6-3 7-6[3]
Second round: vs. Jelena Ostapenko 7-6[2] 7-5
Third round: vs. Madison Keys 6-4 6-2
Round of 16: vs Paula Badosa w/o
Quarter-final: vs. Iga Swiatek 6-2 7-5


Head To Head

Thursday night's semi-final will mark the first meeting on the women's tour between Pegula and Eala, with the Filipina aiming to surprise the American star.

The teenager has achieved two top-10 victories over Keys and Swiatek in Florida, and she aspires to extend her 2-0 record against elite players by overcoming Pegula.


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We say: Pegula to win in two sets

Despite Eala's remarkably inspiring performance in Miami, the 19-year-old's run is expected to end in the semi-finals at the hands of Pegula.

The American player boasts a 25-4 record against opponents outside the top 50 in the last 52 weeks, notching her seventh consecutive victory over such opponents with Wednesday's win over Raducanu, and the fourth seed should secure her eighth triumph in a row in these encounters to reach her first final in Florida.

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Written by
Anthony Brown

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Emma Raducanu during the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells on March 6, 2025
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