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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 47.59%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Colchester United had a probability of 24.38%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.82%) and 2-1 (8.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.79%), while for a Colchester United win it was 0-1 (9.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
Result | ||
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Colchester United |
47.59% ( -0.07) | 28.02% ( -0.04) | 24.38% ( 0.1) |
Both teams to score 42.91% ( 0.17) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
37.98% ( 0.17) | 62.01% ( -0.18) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
18.25% ( 0.13) | 81.75% ( -0.13) |
AFC Wimbledon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.76% ( 0.05) | 26.24% ( -0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.66% ( 0.06) | 61.34% ( -0.06) |
Colchester United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.17% ( 0.2) | 41.83% ( -0.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.71% ( 0.17) | 78.29% ( -0.17) |
Score Analysis |
AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Colchester United |
1-0 @ 14.68% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 9.82% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 8.56% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.38% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.82% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.66% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.47% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.28% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.91% Total : 47.58% | 1-1 @ 12.79% 0-0 @ 10.97% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 3.73% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.52% Total : 28.01% | 0-1 @ 9.56% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 5.58% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 4.17% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.62% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.16% Total : 24.38% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
9 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 22 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 17 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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