Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 38.5%. A win for Bristol Rovers had a probability of 33.14% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.95%) and 0-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Bristol Rovers win was 1-0 (11.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.