Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 42.18%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 29.94% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (10.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
