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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 60.18%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 18.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.96%) and 2-0 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.02%), while for an Accrington Stanley win it was 0-1 (5.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.
Result | ||
Notts County | Draw | Accrington Stanley |
60.18% ( 0.03) | 21.31% ( -0.04) | 18.51% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 54.68% ( 0.16) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.48% ( 0.2) | 42.52% ( -0.21) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.07% ( 0.2) | 64.92% ( -0.21) |
Notts County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.28% ( 0.07) | 13.71% ( -0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
59.03% ( 0.14) | 40.96% ( -0.15) |
Accrington Stanley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.37% ( 0.13) | 36.62% ( -0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.58% ( 0.13) | 73.41% ( -0.14) |
Score Analysis |
Notts County | Draw | Accrington Stanley |
1-0 @ 9.98% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 9.96% 2-0 @ 9.91% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 6.59% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 6.56% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.31% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 3.28% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 3.26% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.65% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.08% Total : 60.18% | 1-1 @ 10.02% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.02% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.15% Total : 21.3% | 0-1 @ 5.05% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 5.03% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.69% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.67% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.54% Total : 18.51% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 40 |
2 | Port Vale | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 36 |
3 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 34 |
4 | AFC Wimbledon | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 33 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 33 |
6 | Chesterfield | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 31 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 20 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 31 |
8 | MK Dons | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 30 |
9 | Gillingham | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 29 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 28 |
11 | Notts County | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 28 |
12 | Salford City | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 27 |
13 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 26 |
14 | Bromley | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 24 |
15 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 24 | 23 | 1 | 23 |
16 | BarrowBarrow | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 23 |
17 | Newport CountyNewport | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 23 |
18 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 22 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 21 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 21 |
21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 19 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 19 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 16 |
23 | Morecambe | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 36 | -17 | 14 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 14 |
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