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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 60.18%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 18.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.96%) and 2-0 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.02%), while for an Accrington Stanley win it was 0-1 (5.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.
Result | ||
Notts County | Draw | Accrington Stanley |
60.18% ( 0.03) | 21.31% ( -0.04) | 18.51% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 54.68% ( 0.16) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.48% ( 0.2) | 42.52% ( -0.21) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.07% ( 0.2) | 64.92% ( -0.21) |
Notts County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.28% ( 0.07) | 13.71% ( -0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
59.03% ( 0.14) | 40.96% ( -0.15) |
Accrington Stanley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.37% ( 0.13) | 36.62% ( -0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.58% ( 0.13) | 73.41% ( -0.14) |
Score Analysis |
Notts County | Draw | Accrington Stanley |
1-0 @ 9.98% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 9.96% 2-0 @ 9.91% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 6.59% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 6.56% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.31% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 3.28% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 3.26% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.65% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.08% Total : 60.18% | 1-1 @ 10.02% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.02% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.15% Total : 21.3% | 0-1 @ 5.05% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 5.03% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.69% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.67% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.54% Total : 18.51% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
9 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 22 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 17 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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