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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 52.53%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 24.64% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.88%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 1-2 (6.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.
Result | ||
Notts County | Draw | Grimsby Town |
52.53% ( 1.82) | 22.83% ( -0.41) | 24.64% ( -1.41) |
Both teams to score 58.55% ( -0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.35% ( 0.61) | 41.64% ( -0.61) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.95% ( 0.61) | 64.04% ( -0.61) |
Notts County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.1% ( 0.87) | 15.9% ( -0.87) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.86% ( 1.58) | 45.14% ( -1.58) |
Grimsby Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.62% ( -0.78) | 30.38% ( 0.78) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.43% ( -0.94) | 66.57% ( 0.94) |
Score Analysis |
Notts County | Draw | Grimsby Town |
2-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 8.88% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.17% ( 0.25) 3-1 @ 5.96% ( 0.23) 3-0 @ 5.01% ( 0.3) 3-2 @ 3.55% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 2.74% ( 0.18) 4-0 @ 2.3% ( 0.2) 4-2 @ 1.63% ( 0.08) 5-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.09) Other @ 3.54% Total : 52.53% | 1-1 @ 10.58% ( -0.21) 2-2 @ 5.8% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 4.83% ( -0.13) 3-3 @ 1.41% ( -0) Other @ 0.21% Total : 22.83% | 1-2 @ 6.31% ( -0.26) 0-1 @ 5.76% ( -0.29) 0-2 @ 3.43% ( -0.25) 1-3 @ 2.5% ( -0.16) 2-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.13) Other @ 2.98% Total : 24.64% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
9 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 22 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 17 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
> League Two Full Table |