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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 39.44%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 34.6% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.55%) and 0-2 (6.67%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 1-0 (8.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Accrington Stanley would win this match.
Result | ||
Accrington Stanley | Draw | Newport County |
34.6% ( 0.14) | 25.95% ( -0.37) | 39.44% ( 0.23) |
Both teams to score 54.19% ( 1.27) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.86% ( 1.61) | 50.14% ( -1.61) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.89% ( 1.42) | 72.1% ( -1.42) |
Accrington Stanley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.25% ( 0.87) | 27.75% ( -0.87) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.68% ( 1.1) | 63.32% ( -1.1) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75% ( 0.86) | 25% ( -0.86) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.35% ( 1.18) | 59.65% ( -1.18) |
Score Analysis |
Accrington Stanley | Draw | Newport County |
1-0 @ 8.89% ( -0.37) 2-1 @ 7.9% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 5.7% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 2.44% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.34% ( 0.13) 4-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.87% Total : 34.6% | 1-1 @ 12.32% ( -0.2) 0-0 @ 6.94% ( -0.46) 2-2 @ 5.48% ( 0.18) 3-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.09) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.95% | 0-1 @ 9.62% ( -0.38) 1-2 @ 8.55% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 6.67% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 3.95% ( 0.13) 0-3 @ 3.08% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.53% ( 0.14) 1-4 @ 1.37% ( 0.08) 0-4 @ 1.07% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.61% Total : 39.44% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Walsall | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 30 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 29 |
4 | Notts County | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 28 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
6 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Chesterfield | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 25 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 25 |
9 | AFC Wimbledon | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 23 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Gillingham | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 23 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 21 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 21 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 17 |
20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 17 |
21 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 13 |
23 | Morecambe | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 13 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 13 |
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