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Lecce logo
Serie A | Gameweek 31
Jul 7, 2020 at 6.30pm UK
Via del Mare
Lazio logo

Lecce
2 - 1
Lazio

Babacar (30'), Lucioni (47')
Donati (43'), Gabriel (56'), Petriccione (65')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Caicedo (5')
Caicedo (22'), Radu (44'), Immobile (81')

Preview: Lecce vs. Lazio - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Serie A clash between Lecce and Lazio, including team news and predicted lineups

Lazio will be looking to bounce back from their disappointing loss against AC Milan at the weekend when they take on Lecce at Stadio Via del Mare.

The Biancocelesti fell to a 3-0 loss on Saturday and are now seven points adrift of leaders Juventus, while Lecce are in the bottom three heading into this match.


Match preview

Lazio midfielder Sergej Milinkovic-Savic celebrates scoring against Inter Milan in February 2020© Reuters

Without suspended top scorer Ciro Immobile and Felipe Caicedo, second-placed Lazio produced a poor display against Milan and were deservedly on the end of a pretty heavy loss.

It was just the Biancocelesti's second defeat in 25 league matches since September, although the other of those losses came four games ago against Atalanta BC.

Two defeats in their four matches since last month's restart has effectively killed off Lazio's Scudetto aspirations, with Juve now on the brink of a ninth-straight triumph.

Simone Inzaghi will at the very least want to put some pressure on the league leaders, though, which his side can achieve by overcoming a struggling Lecce side on Tuesday.

The Giallorossi fell to a 4-2 reverse at the hands of Sassuolo on Saturday and are one point from safety, though 17th-placed Genoa have a game in hand to play on Sunday.

Lazio striker Ciro Immobile pictured in February 2020© Reuters

That was Lecce's fourth successive loss since resuming their Serie A campaign, while going further back it is six defeats on the spin.

Fabio Liverani's side have conceded 25 goals during that run, leaving them with the worst defensive record in the division by quite some margin.

That will surely be of concern for Liverani ahead of this midweek clash given that only Atalanta have scored more than Lazio's 66 goals this season.

With Immobile and Caicedo back in their ranks, this appears to be the perfect opportunity for Inzaghi's men to flex their muscles and show that the title race is not over just yet.

Lazio have won three of their last four meetings with Lecce, drawing the other in a run that includes a 4-2 victory when the sides last met eight months ago.

Lecce's Serie A form: LLLLLL

Lazio's Serie A form: WWLWWL


Team News

Lazio's Felipe Caicedo pictured in October 2018© Reuters

Immobile and Caicedo, who have 37 Serie A goals between them this season, will return from suspension for the trip to Stadio Via del Mare.

That will likely mean Luis Alberto and Joaquin Correa, who managed one shot on target between them against Milan, dropping down to the bench.

Lucas Leiva gave Lazio some added midfield balance before Milan ran away with the game, and he may well retain his place in the side on Tuesday.

Lecce are likely to be without Cristian Dell'Orco, Zan Majer, Alessandro Deiola and Gianluca Lapadula for this match.

Fabio Lucioni returned to the heart of defence against Sassuolo after serving a suspension, while Diego Farias and Khouma Babacar were recalled in attack.

Arguably the biggest decision for Liverani to make is whether to stick with those attacking players or bring in one or both of Riccardo Saponara and Filippo Falco.

Lecce possible starting lineup:
Gabriel; Rispoli, Donati, Lucioni, Paz, Calderoni; Mancosu, Tachtsidis, Barak; Babacar, Farias

Lazio possible starting lineup:
Strakosha; Patric, Acerbi, Radu; Lazzari, Milinkovic-Savic, Parolo, Lucas, Jony; Caicedo, Immobile


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Lecce 0-3 Lazio

Lazio can close the gap on Juventus to four points ahead of the leaders' trip to Milan a little later on Tuesday. The visitors may have been a little off colour at the weekend, but we are expecting them to show exactly what they are all about when back to full strength against out-of-form Lecce.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 54.05%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 24.59% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.21%) and 0-1 (7.07%). The likeliest Lecce win was 2-1 (6.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.


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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli128221991026
2Atalanta BCAtalanta1281331151625
3Fiorentina1274125101525
4Inter Milan1274126141225
5Lazio1281325141125
6Juventus126602171424
7AC Milan115332014618
8Bologna114611513218
9Udinese125161518-316
10Empoli12363910-115
11Torino124261518-314
12Roma123451417-313
13Parma122641618-212
14Hellas VeronaHellas Verona124081727-1012
15Como122461323-1010
16CagliariCagliari122461222-1010
17Genoa12246922-1310
18Lecce12237521-169
19Monza121561015-58
20VeneziaVenezia122281121-108


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