The 119th South Wales derby is almost upon us, as Cardiff City and Swansea City prepare for a Championship showdown at the Cardiff City Stadium on Saturday lunchtime.
The near neighbours are both seeking a return to triumphant ways, as the Bluebirds were held to a 1-1 draw by Watford in midweek, while their visitors have not played since losing 3-0 at Southampton in the FA Cup.
Match preview
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Local lad Cian Ashford almost had the last laugh when Watford came to visit South Wales on Tuesday evening, as the 20-year-old attacker stung the Hornets with the opening goal 65 minutes in, and Cardiff were mere moments away from just a sixth Championship success of the season.
However, Omer Riza's men were undone by Vakoun Bayo's 10th goal of the season with just three minutes of normal time remaining, leaving the Bluebirds with mixed feelings at full time; on one hand, it was a fifth straight match without defeat. On the other, they failed to improve their precarious position in the table.
Six points from the last 12 available is certainly a respectable return, but three straight stalemates mean that Cardiff remain in deep danger in 21st place in the standings, only one point better off than Hull City and Portsmouth, the latter of whom have a game in hand.
Nevertheless, Riza's men are yet to come out on the wrong end of the scoreline since the turn of the year - also edging out Sheffield United 1-0 in the FA Cup third round last weekend - but home is not where the heart is for the hosts at present.
Indeed, Cardiff have now failed to win any of their last six Championship games at the Cardiff City Stadium, where their most recent second-tier victims were Norwich City on November 2, and their paltry tally of 13 home goals remains a joint-low alongside West Bromwich Albion.
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Thirteen goals at home still trumps the 10 that Swansea have managed so far on rival territory this season, and the Swans should not arrive in the capital with a spring in their step, having seen their winless streak stretch to three matches at St Mary's.
Kamaldeen Sulemana's opener and a double from the in-demand Tyler Dibling propelled Premier League relegation favourites Southampton to a resounding FA Cup success on January 12, one which leaves Swansea with nothing but second-tier matches in the diary between now and the end of the season.
The Southampton slaying continued a pitiful start to 2025 for Luke Williams's men, who began the new year with a heavy 4-0 defeat at Portsmouth before restoring some parity with a 1-1 stalemate at home to West Bromwich Albion, where only a last-gasp Joe Allen leveller saved their bacon.
Lying smack-bang in the middle of the Championship table in 12th place, the Swans are rank outsiders for the playoff places - sitting seven points adrift of the top six - and failure to keep the back door shut against Southampton means that they have now lost each of their last three away games.
Furthermore, this exact fixture went the way of Cardiff last season, but September's meeting in Swansea ended in a 1-1 stalemate, and it has been a long 40 years since the Bluebirds won back-to-back home league games against their South Wales rivals.
Team News
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Cardiff came out of Tuesday's game with no new concerns on the injury or suspension front, but veteran midfielder Aaron Ramsey (muscle) and young attacker Roko Simic (knock) remain in the treatment room.
In addition, Callum Robinson has completed a three-match suspension for his red card against Coventry City on New Year's Day, while Anwar El Ghazi and Manolis Siopis have both fought off illnesses, but the former might be spared following his hip injury.
Ashford's opener on Tuesday marked the winger's fourth goal contribution in his last five Championship matches, so the fledgling attacker should not be sacrificed if Robinson makes an expected return.
Meanwhile, Swansea have Oliver Cooper (foot) and Kristian Pedersen (unspecified) taking up beds in the infirmary, and the visitors are also sweating over the fitness of Ben Cabango and Harry Darling, both of whom missed the FA Cup defeat to the Saints.
The Swans boss unsurprisingly went strong for the trip to St Mary's, and most of the starters from the loss to Southampton should be retained, but a guaranteed change sees Lawrence Vigouroux come back in for Jon McLaughlin in goal.
Expect Liam Cullen to return at the tip of the attack too; Florian Bianchini should cede his place to the Welshman.
Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Alnwick; Ng, Daland, Goutas, O'Dowda; Siopis, Rinomhota; Ashford, Robertson, Colwill; Robinson
Swansea City possible starting lineup:
Vigouroux; Key, Christie, Naughton, Tymon; Grimes, Franco; Ronald, Peart-Harris, Eom; Cullen
We say: Cardiff City 1-1 Swansea City
The freshest legs at the Cardiff City Stadium will no doubt belong to the visitors, but Williams could be working around a diminished defence yet again, and his side are hardly pulling up trees on the road.
As was the case in September, we can envisage another closely-contested derby ending all square, as the Bluebirds remarkably play out their fourth 1-1 Championship draw in succession.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Ben Knapton
