Union Berlin's clash against visitors Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga on Sunday at Stadion An der Alten Forsterei could significantly impact both the relegation battle and race for Champions League football.
The home side are sixth last in 13th place with 17 points and their 2-0 defeat against Augsburg on January 15 left them just three points and three places above the relegation playoff spot, whereas Mainz are sixth with 28 points and are just two points from the Champions League places.
Match preview
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Union conceded twice in the first half against Augsburg, and though they prevented their opponents from creating a big chance in the second half, Die Eisernen failed to create a single big chance themselves.
Boss Steffen Baumgart has only been in charge for two games – overseeing two losses – but his side have failed to score while having also conceding four goals in his short tenure so far.
In fact, the hosts' record of 13 goals scored in the top flight is the joint second-worst return in the Bundesliga, though they do rank as the league's joint fifth-best defensive club having only conceded on 24 occasions.
Baumgart's side are winless in their 11 most recent outings, succumbing to defeat in eight matches in that time and losing their last three.
Union's home form has tailed off, as while they achieved victory in their first three fixtures at Stadion An der Alten Forsterei in 2024-25, they have failed to win any of their subsequent five games at home, drawing three and losing two.
Die Eisernen managed to draw 1-1 with Sunday's visitors in the reverse fixture on August 24, and to their credit they did produce two big chances, the same amount as Mainz.
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Karnevalsverein were beaten 1-0 by champions Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday, a match in which Mainz produced just 0.12 xG from open play.
Despite the loss, they are only two points from fourth-placed RB Leipzig and eight from third-placed Eintracht Frankfurt, who have played a game more.
Boss Bo Henriksen's side have been in outstanding form of late, with his team winning six of their past eight league fixtures and losing just twice in their last 10 in the Bundesliga.
Mainz have also kept four clean sheets in their nine most recent matches and have scored three goals in four of their last eight top-flight games.
While Henriksen might be concerned that his team have been beaten in two of their past three away outings, those defeats were their only losses in their nine matches on the road so far this term, winning five and drawing two.
Team News
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Union wing-back Tom Rothe is suspended, while goalkeepers Frederik Ronnow and Yannic Stein will not return until February.
Defender Josip Juranovic is nearing a return, but Kevin Vogt has been ruled out until March, and this could mean that Baumgart uses a back four on Sunday, so expect to see Christopher Trimmel, Danilho Doekhi, Diogo Leite and Jerome Roussillon to start in front of Alexander Schwolow.
Jordan Siebatcheu may be flanked by wingers Benedict Hollerbach and Woo-Yeong Jeong given striker Ivan Prtajin is not likely to make his comeback from injury until late January.
Mainz will be without forwards Gabriel Vidovic and Jonathan Burkardt, so perhaps Paul Nebel and Jae-sung Lee will support striker Armindo Sieb.
Dominik Kohr, Maxim Leitsch and Andreas Hanche-Olsen may start in a back three considering centre-backs Moritz Jenz and Stefan Bell are injured.
Elsewhere, Kaishu Sano has regularly played alongside Nadiem Amiri in midfield, and the duo are candidates to feature together on Sunday.
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Schwolow; Trimmel, Doekhi, Leite, Roussillon; Kemlein, Khedira, Schafer; Hollerbach, Siebatcheu, Jeong
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Kohr, Leitsch, Hanche-Olsen; Caci, Sano, Amiri, Mwene; Nebel, Lee; Sieb
We say: Union Berlin 0-2 Mainz 05
It is difficult to overlook the impressive form of the visitors despite their defeat last time out, and they should be confident of victory.
Union have struggled in the final third this season, and it would not be surprising if Mainz managed to keep their hosts at bay on Sunday.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
