Egypt took a big stride towards qualifying for the Qatar World Cup when they leapfrogged Libya on Friday in Group F of the CAF qualifiers, but Libya have the opportunity to reverse that when the two teams meet again on Monday.
Including this fixture, each team has three games left to make it to World Cup 2022, and three points for Egypt will put them four points clear of Libya in second place and almost guarantee them their place at next year's tournament.
Match preview
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Libya's qualification campaign got off to the perfect start as they won their opening two games last month, and they took advantage of Egypt dropping points against Gabon to top the group heading into their first clash with the Pharaohs.
However, Carlos Queiroz's first game as Egypt manager went the way he would have wished, with Omar Marmoush scoring the only goal of the game to secure a 1-0 win for Queiroz.
Javier Clemente attempted to help his team turn the game around after they fell behind in the 49th minute, and he made four substitutions in the space of 10 minutes after that goal had been scored, but his side could not find an equaliser.
Egypt dominated that game with more possession of the ball and seven shots on target, whereas Libya could only manage one shot on Mohamed El Shenawy's goal.
That was an important win for Egypt, but by all means it does not rule Libya out of topping the group come the end of this qualification campaign, as revenge against Egypt on Monday will see Clemente's side regain top spot.
Libya should be more confident heading into Monday's clash due to the fact that they will be on home soil, compared to the task which they were faced with on Friday when they attempted to beat Egypt at the Borg El Arab Stadium which no other team has managed in a World Cup qualifying game since 2004.
Egypt felt that they needed a change of manager after the side drew against Gabon, but the team have not actually lost a game since 2019, and if they extend that run for just three more games they will be heading to the World Cup, looking to perform better than they did in Russia 2018 when they lost all three group games.
Libya have not qualified for a World Cup before now, making Egypt strong favourites to win Group F, and with both teams expected to win their last two group games, Monday's encounter could ultimately end up being the decisive result in determining the winners of this group.
Monday's result may be affected by which team responds best to playing the same team twice in a small amount of time, as each team has now got a good insight into their opponent, but which team will be able to use that effectively to secure three points on Monday?
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Team News
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Both managers have a decision to make on whether they should alter their team on Monday from their sides which started on Friday, to perhaps add a different aspect to the tactical side of the game.
What is extremely likely to remain the same for the home side is their midfield unit, consisting of Motasem Sabbou, Muaid Ellafi and Omar Al Khoja, as it has done for the last two games.
Marmoush's senior Egypt debut could not have gone much better having scored the winning goal against Libya on Friday, and he is likely to be rewarded with his second start for the national team on Monday.
Arsenal midfielder Mohamed Elneny has not featured for the Gunners since the end of August but he provided experience in the middle of the pitch for Egypt last time out and he is likely to start again against Libya.
Mohamed Salah will want to get back on the scoresheet for his country, and he will lead the line along with Marmoush and Mostafa Mohamed on Monday.
Libya possible starting lineup:
Nashnush; Sherif, El-Mounir, Trbi, Musrati; Sabbou, Ellafi, Khoja; Warfali, Soula, Zubya
Egypt possible starting lineup:
El Shenawy; Fotouh, Hegazy, Wensh, Said; Tawfik, Sulaya, Elneny; Salah, Mohamed, Marmoush
We say: Libya 0-2 Egypt
Egypt did not perform to the heights which they are able to with some of the quality in their squad on Friday, but more time under new manager Queiroz is likely to only help their performance improve each game.
Libya are likely to need to attack the game having lost last time out, but that could be their downfall on Monday as they could leave space in behind their defence for Salah, in particular, to exploit.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Egypt win with a probability of 43.8%. A win for Libya had a probability of 32.45% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Egypt win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.71%) and 0-2 (6.43%). The likeliest Libya win was 2-1 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Egypt would win this match.
