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Angers
AJ Auxerre
Brest logo
Le Havre
Lens logo
Lille
Lyon
Marseille
Monaco
Montpellier
Nantes
Nice
PSG logo
Reims
Rennes
Saint-Etienne
Strasbourg
Toulouse
Brest logo
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 14
Nov 21, 2021 at 12pm UK
Stade Francis-Le Blé
Lens logo

Brest
4 - 0
Lens

Mounie (3'), Chardonnet (13'), Faivre (33'), Le Douaron (69')
Duverne (58')
FT(HT: 3-0)

Medina (36'), Doucoure (76')
Kalimuendo (74')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Brest and Lens, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
High-flying Lens will be hoping that they can consolidate their place in the top four of Ligue 1 with a victory away against Brest on Sunday. The hosts have only won four of their 17 home league matches in 2021, while the visitors are looking to avoid a third successive away defeat.

Match preview

After failing to win any of their opening 11 Ligue 1 matches, Brest have since claimed successive league victories, which has helped them to climb out of the relegation zone. An impressive 2-0 triumph at home against Monaco was followed by a 2-1 win in the Breton derby away against Lorient last time out, with second-half strikes from Romain Faivre and Steve Mounie turning the game on its head to secure all three points. The Pirates, who finished 17th last season, are currently sitting in the same position after 12 Ligue 1 games, hovering above the relegation playoff position by goal difference. Michel Der Zakarian has seen plenty of improvements made by his side in recent weeks, who head into Sunday's game unbeaten in their last four matches. Surprisingly, Brest are one of only five teams in Europe's top five leagues – along with AC Milan, Inter Milan, Bayern Munich and Liverpool – to have scored in every league game this season. The Pirates have also scored in each of their last eight meetings against Lens, though they have only won on three occasions during this period. A victory for Brest on Sunday would see them claim back-to-back home wins in the top flight for the first time since November and December 2020. Since securing promotion from the second tier in 2019-20, Lens have gone from strength to strength in the top flight, with seven wins and three draws from 12 matches this campaign, helping them to climb up to second in the table. Pre-season hopes of potentially improving on last year's seventh-placed finish were seemingly a tall order this time around, however Franck Haise's men continue to impress and are currently occupying a Champions League place. Prior to the international break, Lens were struggling for consistency, alternating between victory and defeat in each of their last five league matches. Haise will now be hoping that his side can build on their most recent 4-0 victory at home against Troyes with another success against a team in the bottom half of the table. Lens have, however, lost their last two away games in Ligue 1 – against Montpellier and Lyon – and have also failed to win each of their last three encounters at the Stade Francis-Le Ble, so Sunday's clash could be challenging for the Pirates. Haise's men may not have the ability to challenge runaway leaders Paris Saint-Germain for the title, but a victory this weekend would at least consolidate their place in the top four for now.
Brest Ligue 1 form:
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W
Lens Ligue 1 form:
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W

Team News

Brest will still be without defender Denys Bain, who continues to recover from a hamstring injury, while backup goalkeeper Sebastien Cibois remains on the sidelines with an Achilles problem. Finnish left-back Jere Uronen, who played against France in a World Cup qualifier earlier this week, is set to start in defence along with Ronael Pierre-Gabriel, Brendan Chardonnet and Lilian Brassier. Attacking midfielders Fairve and Franck Honorat, who have scored four league goals each this term, will likely support lone striker Mounie up front. As for Lens, Florian Sotoca will serve a one-match suspension, following an accumulation of yellow cards, while Wesley Said (muscle) and Deiver Machado (knee) are ruled out due to injury. Ignatius Ganago is expected to replace Said in the first XI, joining Arnaud Kalimuendo-Muinga up front, with Gael Kakuta to operate in the number 10 role just behind. Brest possible starting lineup: Bizot; Pierre-Gabriel, Chardonnet, Brassier, Uronen; Magnetti, Belkebla; Faivre, Cardona, Honorat; Mounie Lens possible starting lineup: Farinez; Gradit, Danso, Medina; Clauss, Doucoure, Fofana, Frankowski; Kakuta; Kalimuendo-Muinga, Ganago

We said: Brest 1-2 Lens

Lens claimed four points from a possible six in the two fixtures against Brest last season and they will be confident of securing another three on Sunday. Brest themselves will have a spring in their step after two successive victories, though we expect the visitors to come away from the Stade Francis-Le Ble with a slender win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 41.07%. A win for Brest had a probability of 32.97% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.73%) and 0-2 (7.04%). The likeliest Brest win was 1-0 (8.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.

Result
BrestDrawLens
32.97%25.96%41.07%
Both teams to score 53.79%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.52%50.48%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.59%72.41%
Brest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.06%28.94%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.18%64.82%
Lens Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.7%24.3%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.32%58.68%
Score Analysis
    Brest 32.97%
    Lens 41.07%
    Draw 25.95%
BrestDrawLens
1-0 @ 8.72%
2-1 @ 7.65%
2-0 @ 5.41%
3-1 @ 3.16%
3-2 @ 2.24%
3-0 @ 2.24%
4-1 @ 0.98%
Other @ 2.59%
Total : 32.97%
1-1 @ 12.33%
0-0 @ 7.03%
2-2 @ 5.41%
3-3 @ 1.05%
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 25.95%
0-1 @ 9.95%
1-2 @ 8.73%
0-2 @ 7.04%
1-3 @ 4.11%
0-3 @ 3.32%
2-3 @ 2.55%
1-4 @ 1.46%
0-4 @ 1.17%
2-4 @ 0.9%
Other @ 1.85%
Total : 41.07%

How you voted: Brest vs Lens

Brest
31.9%
Draw
18.7%
Lens
49.5%
91
Head to Head
Apr 18, 2021 2pm
Gameweek 33
Brest
1-1
Lens
Cahuzac (37' og.), Kakuta (72' pen.)
Bade (35'), Haidara (48'), Fortes (54'), Banza (59'), Clauss (63'), Lucas (87')
Haise (65'), Fortes (81'), Lucas (89'), Banza (89')
Dec 23, 2020 6pm
Gameweek 17
Lens
2-1
Brest
Kalimuendo (11'), Sotoca (34' pen.)
Charbonnier (90+4' pen.)
Pierre-Gabriel (13'), Duverne (32')
Apr 27, 2019 2pm
Gameweek 35
Brest
2-0
Lens
Court (35'), Autret (45')
Autret (52')
Dec 4, 2018 8pm
Gameweek 17
Lens
2-1
Brest
Court (24' og.), Diarra (45')
Mesloub (50'), Tahrat (57'), Diarra (62')
Charbonnier (85')
Belkebla (26'), Mayi (87')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG16124044143040
2Marseille1593332181430
3MonacoMonaco1693426161030
4Lille1576225151027
5Lyon157442720725
6Nice156632819924
7Lens156631914524
8Auxerre156362323021
9Toulouse156361717021
10Reims155552018220
11Brest156182427-319
12Rennes155282020017
13StrasbourgStrasbourg154562527-217
14NantesNantes153571724-714
15Angers153481426-1213
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne1541101234-2213
17Le HavreLe Havre1540111129-1812
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1523101538-239


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