With the tie delicately poised following a 1-1 draw in London, Lyon play host to West Ham United in the second leg of their Europa League quarter-final at the Groupama Stadium on Thursday night.
Either Barcelona or Eintracht Frankfurt awaits the winner in the final four, and the first leg was not without a healthy dose of controversy.
Match preview
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From Aaron Cresswell's controversial red card, Moussa Dembele's Cristiano Ronaldo-esque wink and a pitch invader inexplicably running onto the field when the hosts were on the attack, West Ham and Lyon's first leg of their quarter-final certainly did not disappoint.
Despite losing Cresswell to an early bath just before the half-time whistle blew, the 10 men of West Ham managed to strike first through Jarrod Bowen - back from injury with a bang - but Tottenham Hotspur loanee Tanguy Ndombele finished from close range to restore parity for Les Gones.
Peter Bosz's side head into the second leg having just played out another two-goal stalemate in Ligue 1 with surprise package Strasbourg, but that result certainly came at a cost, with no fewer than three integral players being forced off injured at the Stade de la Meinau.
Still waiting for their first taste of success in the Europa League in its current format, Lyon's spot in a semi-final for the first time since 2016-17 is far from guaranteed, but they at least come into the second leg on the back of a five-game unbeaten run, with four of them ending in draws.
Only one of Lyon's last six games across all competitions has ended in victory, but they are one of only two sides who began the Europa League in the group stage yet to lose in this season's tournament - the other being Eintracht Frankfurt - and West Ham are not too high on confidence themselves.
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West Ham needed no second invitation to make their feelings known following Cresswell's controversial red card, and the quick turnaround for the weekend's Premier League clash with Brentford certainly affected them in that London derby.
David Moyes's side are now considered rank outsiders for a top-four finish after Bryan Mbeumo and Ivan Toney combined twice to hand Brentford a 2-0 win on their own patch at the weekend, so it would not be surprising to see Moyes prioritise success in the Europa League.
Having to face Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City before the Premier League season concludes does not spell optimism for West Ham's 2022-23 European hopes, and they have now posted just three wins from nine since the start of March - all of which have come at the London Stadium.
Defeat at the Brentford Community Stadium marked a fifth loss in a row for West Ham away from home - during which time they have only managed to find the back of the net twice - but Lyon's recent spate of injuries are there to be taken advantage of.
However, West Ham have been eliminated from Europe on each of the last three occasions that they have failed to win a knockout leg at home, and the Groupama Stadium is a daunting ground no matter what shape Lyon's injury-hit side may be in.
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Team News
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Lyon's first-choice goalkeeper Anthony Lopes was taken off on the half-hour mark against Strasbourg at the weekend, while midfielders Ndombele and Houssem Aouar were casualties of thigh and knee issues later on in the contest but are in the squad.
Bosz's midfield dilemma is not helped by Maxence Caqueret's knee injury and a knock for Thiago Mendes, while Lucas Paqueta, Rayan Cherki, Lenny Pintor and Sinaly Diomande are all out of contention as well.
A lack of options in the engine room could see former Arsenal man Jeff Reine-Adelaide handed a rare opportunity to impress, and Bosz may even consider moving to a back five given his plethora of options at centre-back.
While West Ham are dealing with a lack of midfield options, Moyes must rethink his defensive options, with Cresswell serving his European suspension and Kurt Zouma suffering an ankle injury in the Brentford loss.
Zouma is confirmed to be missing out this week, so Issa Diop is on standby, while Angelo Ogbonna continues to recover from knee surgery and Mark Noble will hope to recover from illness in time for Thursday. Manuel Lanzini is also back from a ban served in the first leg.
Arthur Masuaku's inclusion at left-back will be enforced, but Ryan Fredericks will hope to come into contention to replace Ben Johnson at right-back after playing the full 90 last week, and Said Benrahma is holding out for another chance in attack after being sacrificed for Johnson in the first leg.
Lyon possible starting lineup:
Pollersbeck; Gusto, Lukeba, Boateng, Emerson; Ndombele, Mendes; Faivre, Reine-Adelaide, Toko Ekambi; Dembele
West Ham United possible starting lineup:
Areola; Johnson, Dawson, Diop, Masuaku; Rice, Soucek; Bowen, Fornals, Benrahma; Antonio
We say: Lyon 2-2 West Ham United (a.e.t - Lyon to win on penalties)
This is an extremely difficult second leg to call, with Lyon's thin midfield there to be carved open by West Ham's attackers, but Moyes hardly has his first-choice backline available either.
Goals could be on the menu between two sides who boast plenty of talent in the final third, and we simply cannot separate the two outfits over the course of 90 or 120 minutes - ultimately backing Bosz's side to hold their nerve from 12 yards to make it through.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 42.6%. A win for West Ham United had a probability of 31.79% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest West Ham United win was 0-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.
