The opening weekend of the German Bundesliga season continues on Sunday with Mainz 05 hosting RB Leipzig at the Opel Arena.
Mainz will be looking to pick up from where they left off after their miraculous finish to last season, whilst Leipzig will hope to start their fresh title challenge strongly.
Match preview
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The 12th-placed finish for Mainz last campaign was nothing short of a miracle when you consider their position in January. After seven points from their opening 17 games, Die Nullfunfer managed to pull off the greatest escape from relegation in Bundesliga history.
Former player Bo Svensson took over the struggling side at their lowest point in the January. After playing under Jurgen Klopp and Thomas Tuchel at the Opel Arena, the Danish manager used all of his acquired knowledge and experience to drastically turn his side's fortunes around.
During his 20 league matches, Mainz's record was that of a side pushing for Champions League qualification - nine wins, six draws and just five defeats. Included within those nine wins were successes away to Wolfsburg, at home to champions Bayern Munich, and at home against Sunday's opponents Leipzig.
Svensson will be hoping for a positive start to continue his astonishing record so far and keep his side looking up the table, rather than over their shoulders. His first match in charge was in fact that win over Leipzig, which ended 3-2 to the hosts.
In preparation for his first full season in charge, Mainz have remained conservative in the transfer market so far. A small profit has been made on transfers, with just the two low-cost signings and two free transfers to date.
Pre-season has been successful ahead of this weekend's opener on another positive note for the hosts. Three wins from four matches have been ideal workouts, with the only exception being a narrow 1-0 loss to Liverpool.
More recently, Mainz managed to scrape through the first round of the DFB-Pokal last weekend too. A 2-2 draw was played out away at amateur side SV Elversberg, with penalties being required in order to progress.
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Leipzig begin a new project on Sunday after having to tear up the previous one thanks to champions Bayern Munich. Julian Nagelsmann was always expected to head to the Bavarian giants at some point in his career, but Leipzig had hoped his stay would have lasted longer than two years.
However, a ready-made replacement from within the Red Bull group has been acquired earlier than expected as a result. Jesse Marsch is the new man at the helm after arriving from Austrian champions Red Bull Salzburg.
The American is a familiar face in these parts too; after managing in the MLS with other Red Bull side New York Red Bulls, Marsch spent a season at the Red Bull Arena as the assistant manager to Ralf Rangnick in the 2018-19 season.
He brings with him a similar playing style and standard to his predecessor, after his Salzburg side dominated the Austrian Bundesliga during his two years in charge. Points and goals were aplenty during his reign, so Leipzig will be hoping he can build on his impressive CV to date.
For much of last season, it appeared Leipzig would finally be the side to push Bayern the whole way, and possibly even break their streak of consecutive titles.
However, once it appeared that Nagelsmann would be leaving, they fell away towards the end of the season and finished 13 points behind the champions Bayern after winning only two of their final eight league matches.
The summer transfer window has been a busy one for the runners-up; key defenders Dayot Upamecano and Ibrahima Konate have both left for significant fees, with Hannes Wolf moving on to Borussia Monchengladbach and rumours swirling of possible departures for key man Marcel Sabitzer and striker Alexander Sorloth.
In terms of incomings, the influx of money has been spent well so far. Benjamin Henrichs and Angelino have had their loan deals turned permanent, whilst young highly-rated defenders Mohamed Simakan and Josko Gvardiol have been brought in to fill the hole left in central defence.
Andre Silva is the biggest signing so far though - the Portuguese forward has arrived from Eintracht Frankfurt after scoring 28 league goals in 32 matches last season.
Pre-season has been a short one for the visitors this year, with only three matches played. One win, one draw and one loss in those matches was followed up by a comfortable 4-0 demolition of 2.Bundesliga side SV Sandhausen in the first round of the DFB-Pokal at the weekend.
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Team News
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Hosts Mainz have been hit by a COVID-19 outbreak in recent days, with fourteen players and officials testing positive ahead of the opening match. However, the full list of people affected has not been released so it is fairly unclear who is available.
Karim Onisiwo is expected to be one of those however, so he will miss out alongside Anton Stach, who brings forward a suspension from last season to rule him out of this match.
Transfer rumours have disrupted Leipzig's preparations for this season and the opener in particular, as Marcel Sabitzer and Alexander Sorloth are expected to be left out due to potential departures. Sabitzer has not taken part in any friendlies or the cup tie so far, as he enters the final year of his contract.
There should be some new players on display for the visitors on Sunday though, as Andre Silva is expected to make his full debut up front, whilst at least Mohamed Simakan should also start for his first Bundesliga match.
Dominik Szoboszlai has had a full pre-season to prepare for the new campaign after the signing from Salzburg barely had a chance to kick-start his Leipzig career due to injuries last year. The talented youngster will feel like a new arrival completely and should appear from the bench at the very least.
Expected to miss out for the away side are Marcel Halstenberg (ankle), Benjamin Henrichs (knee) and Marcelo Saracchi (also knee), whilst Ademola Lookman is labelled doubtful due to a knee injury as well.
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; St. Juste, Bell, Niakhate; Widmer, Barreiro, Kohr, Lucoqui; Boetius; Burkardt, Szalai
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Mukiele, Simakan, Orban, Angelino; Adams, Kampl; Nkunku, Haidara, Forsberg; Silva
We say: Mainz 05 1-2 RB Leipzig
An entertaining affair should be expected on Sunday, but after scoring 25 goals in their past six meetings with Mainz, we expect Leipzig to edge this one to begin their fresh title challenge in the perfect way. Andre Silva will be expected to get his name on the scoresheet on his full debut for the visitors.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 62.02%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 16.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.76%) and 1-2 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.41%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-0 (5.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
