Maritimo and Moreirense get round eight of the Portuguese Primeira Liga underway when they face off at the Estadio do Maritimo on Friday.
Having lost in both home and away fixtures last season, Maritimo will head into the game seeking to get one over the visitors and get their campaign up and running.
Match preview
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Maritimo were denied a share of the spoils against high-flying Sporting Lisbon as they conceded at the death to suffer a narrow 1-0 defeat at the Estadio Jose Alvalade last Friday.
Julio Velazquez's men put on a sturdy and resilient defensive performance to repel the reigning champions, but after conceding a 97th-minute penalty, Pedro Porro made no mistake as he stepped up and converted from the spot to hand the Leoes their fifth win of the season.
Maritimo are now winless in all but one of their seven games this season, picking up three draws and losing three, with their only win coming on August 16, when they saw off Belenenses 2-1 at the Estadio Nacional do Jamor.
While O Maior das Ilhas have been one of the defensively solid sides in the division, they have struggled to get going at the attacking end of the pitch, where they have scored just six goals to date.
Friday's hosts are currently 12th in the Primeira Liga table, and while they will be looking to move into the top half of the table, next up is the stern test of facing an opposing side who have won each of the last three encounters between the teams since 2020.
Moreirense, on the other hand, picked up their first win of the season courtesy of a 2-1 victory over newly-promoted Arouca at the Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
Following Walterson Silva's 24th-minute opener, Andre Luis doubled the hosts' lead shortly after the hour mark before the Arouquenses pulled one back with eight minutes remaining on the clock through Brazilian forward Andre Silva.
Os verdes e brancos managed three draws and lost three of their first six games, and this horrid run start to the season has been owing to their struggles at the defensive end of the pitch, where they boast the league's worst record with 16 goals conceded already.
However, the win last time out saw Moreirense move level on six points with Friday's hosts, and Joao Henriques will hope it can serve as a springboard for a fine run of form as his side could rise to ninth place with a win on Friday.
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Team News
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Velazquez will be unable to call upon the services of Cameroonian forward Joel Tagueu, who trudged off the pitch with a 19th-minute injury against Braga in this season's curtain-raiser back in August.
Stefano Beltrame is also out of contention for O Maior das Ilhas after the Italian fractured his collarbone in July's game against Sporting Lisbon.
Having picked up a red card against the defending champions last time out, first-choice goalkeeper Paulo Victor will serve a one-match suspension, meaning Miguel Silva could come in for his second appearance of the season.
Maritimo captain Zainadine Junior faces the risk of a one-game suspension after taking his yellow card tally to four with a booking in the aforementioned game.
Meanwhile, Moreirense remain without Croatian midfielder Nikola Jambor, who continues his long journey to full fitness after picking up a severe injury that has kept him out of action for nine months.
He is joined on the club's injury table by Jefferson Galego, who sustained a knee injury in the league curtain-raiser against Benfica back in August.
With four goals in seven appearances, Luis has been on song for Os verdes e brancos and we expect the 27-year-old to be handed his second consecutive start on Friday.
Maritimo possible starting lineup:
Victor; China, Leo, Junior, Winck; Rossi, Pelagio; Mendes; Xadas, Alipour; Ricardinho
Moreirense possible starting lineup:
Pasinato; Jorge, Vitoria, Rosic; Ramos, Pacheco, Soares, Conte; Santos, Martins, Luis
We say: Maritimo 1-2 Moreirense
After escaping relegation by the skin of their teeth last season, Maritimo have kicked off the new campaign on a poor note and will need to up the ante and strengthen their position in the table. Moreirense, meanwhile, head into the game off the back of a morale-boosting victory over Arouca. We anticipate the visitors will carry on the momentum from that game and claim a narrow win over their hosts.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 35.64%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 33.59% and a draw had a probability of 30.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.03%) and 1-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 1-0 (13.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.
