Maritimo entertain Pacos de Ferreira in the Portuguese Primeira Liga on Sunday afternoon, with both sides looking to extend their recent good form.
The hosts have been victorious on their last two outings, including an impressive 2-0 win over Sporting Lisbon in the Taca de Portugal, while Pepa's men are on a five-game unbeaten run.
Match preview
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Os Verde-Rubros are currently sitting in eighth position in the Portuguese top flight after picking up 17 points from their opening 14 league matches.
Star striker Rodrigo Pinha has been the main man at the Estadio do Maritimo this season. The Brazilian forward has bagged 13 goals in 15 games in all competitions, but the South American will be unavailable after testing positive for coronavirus.
The 29-year-old scored the opener in Maritimo's shock cup victory over Sporting earlier in the month, and Jose Manuel Gomes's men built on that magnificent result last time out.
A 1-0 win over Gil Vicente on Sunday meant Gomes's side have lost just once in their last seven fixtures, meaning they will be full of confidence and belief heading into this one.
Pacos de Ferreira have been the surprise package in Portugal this campaign and occupy fifth spot after beating Braga in their most recent outing.
That victory made it three consecutive 2-0 wins for the Estadio da Mata Real outfit, who have gone 270 minutes without conceding a goal.
Their success throughout 2020-21 has been built on solid foundations. Os Castores have leaked just 12 Primeira Liga goals this season, meaning they have the joint-second best defence in the division.
It should be an intriguing matchup to see how Maritimo cope without the man who has scored nearly half of their league goals when facing one of the nation's best defensive units.
Maritimo Primeira Liga form: LWWDLW
Maritimo form (all competitions): WWDLWW
Pacos de Ferreira Primeira Liga form: LDDWWW
Pacos de Ferreira form (all competitions): LDDWWW
Team News
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As previously stated, Maritimo will once again be without their key man Pinha after he contracted COVID-19. That means Felicio Milson is likely to keep his place up front after filling in admirably against Gil Vicente.
Centre-back Rene is also unavailable due to an ankle injury, while defensive midfielder Jean is serving a one-match suspension after accumulating too many yellow cards.
Pepa almost has the luxury of a fully-fit squad to choose from with 24-year-old full-back Jorge Silva the only absentee.
Winger Helder Ferreira bagged his first goal of the season last time out and will be hoping it is the start of a good run of form.
Maritimo possible starting lineup:
Abedzadeh; Africo, Andrade, Junior; Winck, Bambock, Moreno, Hermes; Guitane; Pinho, Joel
Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Jordi; Uilton, Baixinho, Maracas, Fonseca; Costa, Eustaquio, Carlos; Singh, Tanque, Ferreira
We say: Maritimo 2-2 Pacos de Ferreira
This should be an exciting matchup between two teams who will fancy their chances of taking all three points. We think they may be too evenly matched, though, and fancy them to share the spoils in a score draw.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 39.56%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 31.93% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.02%) and 0-2 (7.59%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 1-0 (10.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pacos de Ferreira would win this match.
