MX23RW : Thursday, November 21 18:11:16| >> :60:5:5:
Ecuador national football team
Friendlies 1
Jun 16, 2024 at 8.30pm UK
Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field
Honduras national football team

Ecuador
2 - 1
Honduras

Sarmiento (8'), Hincapie (89')
Paez (57'), Gruezo (84')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Rochez (29' pen.)
Alvarez (62'), Enrique Martinez (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's friendly clash between Ecuador and Honduras, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last Game: Ecuador 3-1 Bolivia
Thursday, June 13 at 1.30am in International Friendlies

Honduras

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last Game: Bermuda 1-6 Honduras
Monday, June 10 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - North Central America

We said: Ecuador 3-1 Honduras

 There is a considerable gap in quality between these two nations, as Ecuador are among South America's top teams and Honduras failed to even qualify for a guest spot at the Copa America. Though El Tri might decide to preserve some of their best players for the upcoming tournament, they should make light work of opponents that have only beaten minnows in 2024. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 43.86%. A win for Honduras had a probability of 29.81% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest Honduras win was 0-1 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.

Result
EcuadorDrawHonduras
43.86% (0.1 0.1) 26.33% (0.091000000000001 0.09) 29.81% (-0.189 -0.19)
Both teams to score 51.32% (-0.383 -0.38)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.93% (-0.447 -0.45)53.08% (0.44900000000001 0.45)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.34% (-0.38 -0.38)74.66% (0.381 0.38)
Ecuador Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.95% (-0.148 -0.15)24.05% (0.148 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.67% (-0.211 -0.21)58.33% (0.211 0.21)
Honduras Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.58% (-0.372 -0.37)32.42% (0.372 0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.06% (-0.42 -0.42)68.94% (0.422 0.42)
Score Analysis
    Ecuador 43.86%
    Honduras 29.81%
    Draw 26.32%
EcuadorDrawHonduras
1-0 @ 11.11% (0.15 0.15)
2-1 @ 8.92% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 7.92% (0.071 0.07)
3-1 @ 4.24% (-0.024 -0.02)
3-0 @ 3.76% (0.017 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.39% (-0.038 -0.04)
4-1 @ 1.51% (-0.015 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.34% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.69%
Total : 43.86%
1-1 @ 12.51% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
0-0 @ 7.8% (0.137 0.14)
2-2 @ 5.02% (-0.058 -0.06)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 26.32%
0-1 @ 8.78% (0.066000000000001 0.07)
1-2 @ 7.05% (-0.05 -0.05)
0-2 @ 4.95% (-0.014 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.65% (-0.046 -0.05)
2-3 @ 1.89% (-0.041 -0.04)
0-3 @ 1.86% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 29.81%

How you voted: Ecuador vs Honduras

Ecuador
77.1%
Draw
11.4%
Honduras
11.4%
35
Head to Head
Mar 27, 2019 12am
International Friendlies
Honduras
0-0
Ecuador
Figueroa (59')
Intriago (61')
Jun 20, 2014 11pm
Group Stage
Honduras
1-2
Ecuador
Costly (31')
Bernardez (7'), Bengtson (45+3')
Valencia (34', 65')
Valencia (57'), Valencia (73'), Montero (80')
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