Middlesbrough play host to Cardiff City on Wednesday evening looking for the victory which will move them to within two points of the Championship playoff spots.
At a time when the home side are on a five-match winless streak, Cardiff have suffered three successive defeats to leave them in 19th position in the standings.
Match preview
© Reuters
At the start of April, everything appeared set up for Middlesbrough to secure a top-six spot, regardless of the level of opposition that they were due to face in a short amount of time.
However, just two points have been collected from a five-game period, the only goal being netted during Saturday's 1-1 draw at Swansea City.
In isolation, a point at the improving Swans will not be regarded as a bad result, but Boro may now have to win their remaining three fixtures to finish in sixth position.
With Stoke and Preston North End to follow Wednesday's contest, the matches are in their favour, although it still feels like a tough ask given their issues in front of goal.
Constant rotation with the front two was supposed to keep players fresh, but it has only led to a lack of cohesion and rhythm since the four-goal salvo at Peterborough United on April 2.
© Reuters
Such was Cardiff's form not so long ago that the Bluebirds hierarchy felt comfortable in handing Steve Morison a contract until the end of next season.
While the 38-year-old has fared well in his first managerial position, Cardiff face the prospect of ending the season on a low note after posting three defeats in succession.
In total, four losses have come in five games, the only success coming at Reading, and it has left Morison with plenty to ponder ahead of the summer transfer market.
On a positive note, Cardiff end the season with winnable fixtures against Birmingham City and Derby County, providing them with the chance to still finish as high as 17th place.
However, three matches have now come and gone since the Welsh side have scored from open play, an obvious concern ahead of playing one of the division's best defences.
- W
- L
- L
- D
- L
- D
- W
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
With Matt Crooks continuing to serve a suspension for 15 yellow cards, Wilder will give consideration to naming the same Boro XI.
However, based on his previous decisions, Andraz Sporar, Aaron Connolly and Folarin Balogun are all in contention for a recall in the final third.
Although Dael Fry is on the brink of recovering from a calf injury, the centre-back may not be risked until the weekend.
Despite defeat at Sheffield United on Saturday, Morison may not make many alterations to his Cardiff starting lineup.
Will Vaulks and Rubin Colwill appear most likely to be handed opportunities in midfield and a creative area respectively.
Middlesbrough possible starting lineup:
Daniels; Dijksteel, Bamba, McNair; Jones, Tavernier, Howson, Bola; McGree; Watmore, Balogun
Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Phillips; Ng, Nelson, Denham; Drameh, Vaulks, Wintle, Bagan; Doyle; Colwill, Hugill
We say: Middlesbrough 2-1 Cardiff City
While Boro are not quite at the point of no return, they will know that a draw will likely be no good to them in the grand scheme of things. With that in mind, we expect an offensive-minded performance from Wilder's men, who we are backing to prevail by the odd goal in three.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 50.63%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Cardiff City had a probability of 24.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.44%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12%), while for a Cardiff City win it was 0-1 (7.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
