Decision day is here, and Minnesota United will be looking to secure their place in the MLS postseason when they take on St Louis City at Allianz Field on Sunday morning.
The hosts enter this match holding the final automatic final series qualification spot in the Western Conference, while the visitors are 12th in the standings and out of playoff contention.
Match preview
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In contrast to the Eastern Conference, all the playoff teams in the Western Conference have already been finalised, in addition, the top four seeds are secured: LAFC, LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake and Seattle Sounders will each have home-field advantage in the first round.
However, there is still plenty to play for on decision day, particularly in the race to avoid the playoffs, where Minnesota currently hold the final automatic qualifier spot with a two-point advantage over eighth-placed Vancouver.
In the best-case scenario, Eric Ramsay's side can finish the season on 52 points - one less than the club record of 53 set in 2019 - and if both Houston and Colorado lose or draw, the Loons can leapfrog them into fifth, setting up a first-round match against either Seattle or Real Salt Lake.
A loss would mean Minnesota will remain on 49 points and could slip to eighth if Vancouver beat RSL. Even if Portland win and tie MNUFC on 49 points, the Black and Blues will hold the advantage in the tie-breaker.
Permutations aside, the hosts will be going all out for the win here, and they have momentum behind them, unbeaten in their last four games, including three wins and a draw, while maintaining clean sheets in each of those matches.
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Meanwhile, after a dream inaugural MLS season which saw them finish as the number one seed in the West with 56 points, St Louis have experienced a major fall from grace this term.
City SC will enter decision day out of the playoff equation with only 37 points, and the best they can do from here is move up to 10th place, though that will require Austin and Dallas to lose their final matches of the campaign.
Across their 33 games this season, the visitors have managed just eight wins, and a run of nine matches without victory between mid-May and the end of June saw the club opt to part ways with South African Bradley Carnell on July 1.
John Hackworth stepped in as the caretaker manager until the end of the season, and while he has only averaged 1.41 points per game compared to his predecessor's 1.31, the American has steered the side to three wins in their last four league matches.
However, only one of those wins came on the road, and that also happened to be the only away victory St Louis have managed to pick up this entire season (W1 D8 L7).
Team News
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Minnesota will be able to welcome Michael Boxall back to the squad for the final game of the season after he was forced to sit out the last match due to an accumulation of yellow cards.
However, the hosts will be without the services of at least two players here, with Teemu Pukki (thigh) and Zarek Valentin (foot) definitely ruled out through injury, while DJ Taylor (thigh) is flagged as a doubt.
St Louis, on the other hand, could be without as many as four players for this trip to Saint Paul, including long-term absentees Tomas Ostrak (ankle) and Celio Pompeu (broken fibula).
Chris Durkin and Cedric Teuchert are both listed as questionable owing to knee injuries, which could see Indiana Vassilev return to the starting 11 and partner Akil Watts in the visitors' engine room.
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
St. Clair; Harvey, Diaz, Tapias, Markanich; Jeong, Dotson, Trapp, Pereyra; Oluwaseyi; Hlongwane
St Louis City possible starting lineup:
Burki; Totland, Kessler, Nilsson, Horn; Vassilev, Watts, Lowen, Hartel; Klauss, Becher
We say: Minnesota United 2-1 St Louis City
While St Louis are ending the season quite well, it is a case of too little too late for last season's top seeds. Minnesota beat this opponent fairly comfortably 3-1 just over a month ago, and we feel the hosts will notch up another victory in this one.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Devesh Jaganath
