The Crew have an edge in terms of individual quality and match-winners, but they have had far too many defensive breakdowns this season at the most inopportune times, not the mention they have had a miserable campaign away from home, losing more road games than any side in MLS (10).
If this match were in Columbus, we would be inclined to predict a victory for the Crew, however, the Lions have been much more disciplined and solid defensively at home, which we believe will frustrate the visitors.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orlando City win with a probability of 52.49%. A win for Columbus Crew had a probability of 23.83% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orlando City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.73%) and 2-0 (8.9%). The likeliest Columbus Crew win was 0-1 (6.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Orlando City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Orlando City.
0.07) 
-0.03) 
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