We said: New York City FC 2-0 Orlando City
The Pigeons are full of confidence at the moment, winning a pair of significant games, while Orlando looked great against Toronto, but to be fair, the Reds appeared deflated after being eliminated from postseason contention.
Momentum and quality will favour NYCFC in this one, while we expect the Lions to hang back and try to impede the home side, who have many dependable match winners.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 68.6%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Orlando City had a probability of 12.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.49%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.01%), while for a Orlando City win it was 0-1 (4.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.