The final spot in the CONCACAF Champions Cup (CCC) semi-finals will be determined on Wednesday when Monterrey host Inter Miami in the second leg of that tie at Estadio BBVA.
In the opening leg played a week ago, the Mexicans scored two goals in the final 21 minutes to claim a 2-1 come-from-behind victory, giving them the upper hand heading home.
Match preview
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For the first time in 2024, Liga MX heavyweights Monterrey won a match despite conceding the opening goal, putting them in the driver's seat to make the CCC semi-finals for the first time since the 2020/21 campaign.
La Pandilla have won all five of their matches played in the competition this season, while they are unbeaten in their last 11 Champions Cup encounters in the knockout stage.
Fernando Ortiz has seen his side lose consecutive domestic contests, suffering a 2-1 defeat to Cruz Azul over the weekend, though they have a 100% record at home in the Champions Cup this season, conceding just once.
While they showed in the opening leg an ability to react well after going behind, Monterrey have proven they can hang onto an advantage just as well, winning all of their competitive fixtures this year when leading at the half.
This is their sixth appearance in the quarter-finals of this tournament, and on the five previous occasions, Rayados have advanced beyond this stage each time and have never lost a home game in the last eight of this competition.
They have only suffered one defeat to a Major League Soccer (MLS) side in the knockout portion of this tournament (1-0 at Atlanta United in the 2019 quarter-finals) while losing only one CCC encounter at home versus an MLS opponent (1-0 to the Seattle Sounders in August 2011).
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A costly red card in the second half of their opening leg versus Monterrey dramatically changed the fortunes of Inter Miami last week.
Tata Martino's men were firmly in control of their home fixture with the Mexicans, before conceding twice in the second half as they fell apart after being reduced to 10 men.
It was the first time all year that the Herons went on to lose a match in which they were in front after 45 minutes of play, while it was also their first-ever defeat in this tournament in what is their first-ever appearance at this competition.
Down by just a goal may not seem like a steep hill to climb, but the Herons are winless in three of their four away matches in all competitions this season and have never won a CCC fixture away from home.
While their record as the visitors in 2024 has not been great, this team have reacted well throughout the new campaign when behind, coming back to earn a result in three competitive matches this year when conceding the opening goal.
Miami will have a tall task to complete on Wednesday in leg two of this tie, but they did come away with a victory in their first and only competitive away fixture played in Mexico, defeating Cruz Azul 2-1 in July 2023 at the Leagues Cup and lifting the trophy later that year.
Team News
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Cesar Bustos missed the opening leg of this tie for Monterrey as the Mexican defender continues to recover from a muscle injury.
Jorge Rodriguez and Gerardo Arteaga missed their defeat to Cruz Azul in Liga MX action this past weekend due to red-card suspensions, but both are eligible to play in this encounter.
Their leading goalscorer in this competition, Brandon Vazquez (three goals), saw his three-match CCC scoring run end against the Herons last week, though Maximiliano Meza had a goal and an assist to reverse the scoreline, setting up the winner from Rodriguez.
Lionel Messi missed the opening match of this tie with a muscle injury but played the entire second half of their MLS draw with the Colorado Rapids on Saturday (2-2), scoring his fourth of the domestic campaign.
Robert Taylor is questionable after being taken off before the end of the second half of the opening leg with discomfort in his left hamstring, Federico Redondo is out because of damage in his LCL, Robbie Robinson, Ian Fray and Facundo Farias are all dealing with knee injuries, Yannick Bright has a hamstring strain while the Herons will be without David Ruiz who received a pair of cautions in the opening match of this tie.
Tomas Aviles scored the only goal for Miami in the opening leg, redirecting a lovely corner kick delivery from Julian Gressel into the back of the net.
Monterrey possible starting lineup:
Andrada; Aguirre, Guzman, Moreno, Arteaga; Romo, Rodriguez; Meza, Canales, Corona; Vazquez
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
Callender; Weigandt, Aviles, Freire, Alba; Gressel, Busquets, Gomez; Campana, Suarez, Messi
We say: Monterrey 1-1 Inter Miami (Monterrey advance 3-2 on aggregate)
Even the great Messi can only do so much, and though we expect him to play, he and his veteran teammates appear to be fatigued with the demands of MLS and this tournament.
Monterrey have plenty of attacking depth, and being a goal up should allow them to hang back and counter effectively against a side like Miami, who have been vulnerable on the back end and leave plenty of gaps in between their midfield and defence.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
