Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Faroe Islands win with a probability of 40.14%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 38.62% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Faroe Islands win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (4.96%) and 3-2 (4.68%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 1-2 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Faroe Islands in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Faroe Islands.
0.13) 
-0.15) 
