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UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
San Marino national football team
Nations League | League D
Nov 15, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle
Gibraltar national football team

San Marino
1 - 1
Gibraltar

Nanni (90+2' pen.)
Valli Casadei (20'), Benvenuti (58'), Nanni (85'), Cevoli (85')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Walker (11' pen.)
Pozo (39'), Walker (68'), Torilla (76'), De Barr (87'), Jolley (90+1'), Annesley (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Nations League clash between San Marino and Gibraltar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

San Marino

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Andorra 2-0 San Marino
Sunday, October 13 at 5pm in International Friendlies

Gibraltar

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Liechtenstein 0-0 Gibraltar
Sunday, October 13 at 5pm in Nations League

We said: San Marino 0-2 Gibraltar

 It is difficult to see how San Marino avoid defeat given they have only won one competitive match in their history. Gibraltar are also unbeaten in recent games, and it would not be surprising if they won on Friday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Marino win with a probability of 43.75%. A win for Gibraltar had a probability of 31.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a San Marino win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.08%) and 2-0 (7.13%). The likeliest Gibraltar win was 0-1 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.

Result
San MarinoDrawGibraltar
43.75% (0.076999999999998 0.08) 24.89% (-0.004999999999999 -0) 31.36% (-0.07 -0.07)
Both teams to score 56.75% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.63%46.37% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.34%68.66%
San Marino Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.77% (0.035000000000011 0.04)21.23% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.86% (0.052999999999997 0.05)54.14% (-0.052 -0.05)
Gibraltar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.04% (-0.043000000000006 -0.04)27.96% (0.043999999999997 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.41% (-0.055999999999997 -0.06)63.59% (0.057000000000002 0.06)
Score Analysis
    San Marino 43.75%
    Gibraltar 31.36%
    Draw 24.89%
San MarinoDrawGibraltar
1-0 @ 9.2% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.08% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
2-0 @ 7.13% (0.015 0.01)
3-1 @ 4.69% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-0 @ 3.68% (0.011 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.99% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-1 @ 1.82% (0.006 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.43% (0.006 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.16% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.58%
Total : 43.75%
1-1 @ 11.72%
0-0 @ 5.94%
2-2 @ 5.79% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-3 @ 1.27% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 24.89%
0-1 @ 7.57% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
1-2 @ 7.47% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.82% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.17% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.46% (-0.004 -0)
0-3 @ 2.05% (-0.008 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.01% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.81%
Total : 31.36%

How you voted: San Marino vs Gibraltar

San Marino
20.0%
Draw
14.3%
Gibraltar
65.7%
105
Head to Head
Oct 10, 2024 7.45pm
League D
Gibraltar
1-0
San Marino
Britto (62')
De Barr (17'), Britto (23'), Torilla (78')

Tosi (10'), Valli Casadei (15'), Zannoni (60'), Battistini (63'), Lazzari (76'), Benvenuti (83'), Sensoli (87'), Contadini (90+3')
> Preview
Nov 14, 2020 2pm
League D
San Marino
0-0
Gibraltar
Brolli (75')
Simoncini (49')
Chipolina (15'), Torilla (73'), Styche (81')
Sep 5, 2020 2pm
League D
Gibraltar
1-0
San Marino
Torilla (42')
Walker (90')

Nanni (12'), Simoncini (64')
rhs 2.0
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