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Newcastle Jets
Australian A-League | Gameweek 18
Apr 10, 2021 at 6.05am UK
Hunter Stadium
Melbourne Victory

Newcastle Jets
1 - 2
Victory

Stamatelopoulos (18')
Thurgate (66'), Abimanyu (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Ryan (48'), Brooks (79')
Butterfield (63'), Lawrie-Lattanzio (81'), Lauton (90+1')

Preview: Newcastle Jets vs. Melbourne Victory - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Australian A-League clash between Newcastle Jets and Melbourne Victory, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Newcastle Jets host Melbourne Victory on Saturday in a pivotal game at the bottom of the Australian A-League.

The visitors currently sit 12th in the league, three points behind the Jets with a game in hand, setting up a six-pointer in the quest to not finish rock-bottom.


Match preview

Melbourne Victory players celebrate in December 2020© Reuters

The Jets, managed by Craig Deans, have never finished lower than 10th in the A-League and so will be determined to improve on recent form to lift them up the table during the final two months of the season.

After an unbeaten five-game run between the end of January and the end of February, form has dipped with the team recording six losses on the bounce.

Last time out the Jets lost at the McDonald Jones stadium, falling to an early goal from Weston United's Lachlan Wales, despite having 20 attempts at goal.

That result means that Dean's side have not won at home since February 7 when they beat high-flying Melbourne City 1-0.

Cause for concern for Jets' fans will be that their team is the lowest scoring in the league, having only netted 12 times this season.

However, the visitors on Saturday have not been much better in front of goal, managing 13 goals in their 14 league games.

Melbourne Victory's league position may be even more of a surprise as they have four league titles in their trophy cabinet.

A dramatic fall from finishing third in the 2018-19 season to finishing 10th last season shows worrying signs for Victory.

Grant Brebner's side have only recorded two wins this season and have conceded the highest number of goals with 34.

Striker Elvis Kamsoba was sent off during the last game, and his teammates succumbed to a 3-0 defeat at the hands of Sydney FC.

Newcastle Jets Australian A-League form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L

Melbourne Victory Australian A-League form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L



Team News

Melbourne Victory manager Grant Brebner pictured in December 2020© Reuters

Newcastle Jets will continue without three players sidelined due to longer-term injuries including Johnny Koutroumbis, Nigel Boogaard and Tete Yengi.

Deans was impressed with his midfield three against Western United despite the result, so Luka Prso, Angus Thurgate and Ramy Najjarine are all expected to retain their places on Saturday.

The visitors will continue to be without defender Ryan Shotton and, despite a return to training for Rudy Gestede, the game comes too early for him to make a return.

Suspension for Kamsoba means that he misses out as well, potentially giving the opportunity for Luis Lawrie-Lattanzio or Ben Falomi to start in his place.

Other than the longer-term injuries and the one suspension, Brebner expects his side to be relatively unchanged.

Newcastle Jets possible starting lineup:
Italiano; O'Toole, Topor-Stanley, Jackson, Millar; Prso, Thurgate; Najjarine, Yuel, Stamatelopoulos; O'Donovan

Melbourne Victory possible starting lineup:
Acton; Traore, Ryan, Ansell, Roux; Barnett, Butterfield; Brimmer, Kruse, McManaman; Folami


SM words green background

We say: Newcastle Jets 2-0 Melbourne Victory

Brebner's side are yet to record a victory away from home this season, and with the Jets creating a good amount of chances at the McDonald Jones stadium against Western United last time out, we predict the home side to convert some of those chances on Saturday and win this bottom-of-the-table clash.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle Jets win with a probability of 50.36%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 25.06% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle Jets win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 2-0 (8.85%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 0-1 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.


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