Two sides in a heated battle near the top of the League One table will face off on Saturday at Kassam Stadium when Oxford United host Wigan Athletic.
The Yellows overcame an early goal last weekend, coming back to beat MK Dons 2-1, moving into fifth place, three points behind the Latics, who conceded late in their 1-1 draw against Ipswich Town.
Match preview
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As the holidays approach, Oxford United have many positives to take away from their form in League One, now unbeaten in nine consecutive domestic encounters.
Being this high in the table is a familiar feeling for Karl Robinson and his team, who have finished in the top six in each of their previous two campaigns, missing a shot at promotion in the play-off round both times.
This season their goal will be to try and claim one of those top two positions in the standings which eluded them in 2019-20 and 2020-21, and a victory on Saturday would put them right in the thick of that race to guarantee themselves a place in the Championship next season.
Even though it has been a long time since they have lost a league game, they received a wake-up call, dropping a 3-2 decision to the Brentford B team in a friendly on Tuesday, falling behind by two goals in the opening six minutes.
One of the areas that has been a sore spot for them in this domestic campaign crept up again this week as the U's were far too timid going in for challenges against the Bees reserve side, and they had trouble dealing with the high energy and press of the opposition.
They are at their best when their wingers can isolate full-backs in one-on-one situations and work outside of their opponents to force them on their heels, something that has been a big part of their success in League One over the past couple of months.
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You would not have known that Wigan Athletic were among the hottest teams in the league following their match on Saturday as manager Leam Richardson said that he was disappointed with their draw to Ipswich, leaving his team unbeaten now in 11 successive encounters in all competitions.
That attitude of never being fully satisfied and remaining focused on what lies ahead seems to have reverberated down from Richardson to his players, who can overtake Rotherham United for first place on Saturday with a victory.
This team have a solid group of creative athletes who find the back of the net regularly, with 11 different players scoring already this season while also conceding the second-fewest amount of goals (18), behind only the current league leaders, the Millers.
When they can set the pace of a match, with their solid midfield play and ability to maintain possession, they are often successful, and their patience as well as their potential to pounce quickly is a big reason why they are currently positioned to earn a promotion into the second tier of English football for the first time since capturing the League One crown in 2017-18.
Wigan do not have a single player who stands out and leads in any statistical category, however as a unit, this team have grown tremendously from a season ago when they finished 20th.
Richardson has to be impressed with how clinical his squad have been away from home, scoring multiple goals in all but one road game so far in this domestic campaign, with their only defeat as the visitors coming in their season opener versus Sunderland, falling 2-1.
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Team News
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Oxford goalkeeper Jack Stevens started in their friendly defeat on Tuesday, playing the first 45 minutes after missing some time with a glandular fever.
The U's put together a big second-half performance last Saturday as Matty Taylor notched the equaliser versus MK Dons, his eighth of the season, moving him ahead of James Henry for the team lead, while Mark Sykes scored the winner with 11 minutes of normal time remaining, his sixth of the campaign.
This team will be missing defender Jordan Thorniley, after the 25-year-old, on loan from Blackpool, was red-carded deep into injury time last Saturday.
The Tics got some bad news this week when it was announced that midfielder Jordan Cousins could miss as much as 16 weeks after suffering a knock in their victory over Shrewsbury earlier this month.
Callum Lang scored their only goal last weekend as he now has eight on the season, one back of the team lead held by Will Keane, while Max Power has enjoyed his share of success versus the scholars of Oxford, scoring twice against them in his career.
Richardson made a few changes to his starting 11 versus Ipswich as Tom Pearce played at left-back instead of Joe Bennett, Power replaced the injured Cousins as a holding midfielder, Gwion Edwards took over from Gavin Massey in an attacking midfield position, and Keane played as the lone striker with Lang sitting out.
Oxford United possible starting lineup:
Eastwood; Seddon, Mousinho, Moore, Long; Brannagan, Kane, Williams; Bodin, Taylor, Sykes
Wigan Athletic possible starting lineup:
Amos; Darikwa, Whatmough, Tilt, Bennett; Power, Naylor; Massey, Lang, McClean; Keane
We say: Oxford United 1-2 Wigan Athletic
Wigan do not depend on one player to win, and although the loss of Cousins will be felt, there is still plenty of quality personnel on this team that can get the job done.
Oxford have been splendid at home this season, however, their depth and consistency is not as good as Wigan's, so we expect to see a determined Latics side, who know that this is their chance to take over the top spot with a game in hand on Rotherham.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 39.9%. A win for Wigan Athletic had a probability of 33.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Wigan Athletic win was 0-1 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Wigan Athletic would win this match.
