Pacos de Ferreira host Belenenses in the Primeira Liga on Friday afternoon, hoping to get back to winning ways and secure their 10th home victory of the campaign.
Meanwhile, the last time that the visitors claimed all three points at the Estadio de Mata Real was back in March 2008.
Match preview
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Pacos de Ferreira were able to end a poor run of four successive league defeats but could only draw 1-1 away at 10-man Rio Ave last weekend.
Ze Uilton chipped in the opener for the visitors just after the half-hour mark before former Real Madrid left-back Fabio Coentrao headed in Rio Ave's equaliser nine minutes after the break. Ivo Pinto was then shown a straight red card in the final 10 minutes for protesting to the referee, but the hosts were able to hold on for a point.
The Beavers were seven points behind the Champions League positions at the beginning of March, but a run of just two wins from their last eight Primeira Liga matches has seen them slip 18 points behind the top three.
With just five league games remaining, head coach Pepa will now be hoping to return to winnings ways quickly and finish the campaign strongly to ensure that they achieve European qualification for next season.
Pacos have only lost one of their last 17 meetings with Belenenses, so although they are lacking form, the home side should fancy their chances of securing all three points on Friday.
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Belenenses extended their unbeaten league run to four matches with a 2-1 home victory against Gil Vicente on Monday.
Despite falling behind on the stroke of half time through a goal from Pedro Marques, Petit's side fought back with Francisco Teixeira scoring a 91st-minute winner to seal their seventh victory of the campaign.
That result moved O Belem into the top 10 and just four points behind Vitoria Guimaraes in sixth; they are also just one point from matching last season's points total with five matches still left to play.
Belenenses have improved greatly from last season, particularly in defence, which has made them much tougher opponents to beat.
In the 2019-20 campaign, O Belem lost 17 matches and conceded 54 goals, however this term, as well as losing just nine times, they have also conceded only 27 goals and have kept 12 clean sheets – defensive statistics that are only bettered by the league's top three sides; Sporting Lisbon, Porto and Benfica.
Belenenses have accumulated 19 points since the beginning of February, putting themselves in a strong position to avoid relegation, and another victory on Friday could move them nine points clear of the bottom three heading into the final four matches of the season.
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Team News
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Pacos de Ferreira midfielder Bruno Costa is back from suspension and is in contention to start on Friday alongside Stephen Eustaquio and Abbas Ibrahim.
Douglas Tanque is expected to start as the lone striker and will be looking to end his four-game goalless run, having netted seven times in the league so far this season.
Belenenses boss Petit is unlikely to make too many changes to his starting lineup and is expected to stick with a 3-4-3 formation.
Defender Goncalo Silva is back from suspension and could return to the first XI at the expense of Thibang Phete.
Striker Mateo Cassierra, who scored a brace against Sporting Lisbon last week, is set to start with Silvestre Varela and Miguel Cardoso to play on the flanks.
Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Jordi; Fonseca, Marcelo, Gonzaga, Rebocho; Uilton, Costa, Eustaquio, Ibrahim, Singh; Tanque,
Belenenses possible starting lineup:
Kritsyuk; Silva, Henrique, Ribeiro; Esgaio, Sithole, Sousa, Lima; Varela, Cassierra, Cardoso
We say: Pacos de Ferreira 1-1 Belenenses
Pacos de Ferreria beat Belenenses 2-0 in January, however since then, the form for both sides has flipped, which could mean that Friday's contest is a much closer affair.
A high-scoring game is not expected at the Estadio da Mata Real and with little to separate the two teams, a draw could be on the cards.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 41.08%. A win for Belenenses had a probability of 30.39% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.15%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Belenenses win was 0-1 (10.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Pacos de Ferreira in this match.
