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Panama national football team
World Cup Qualifying - North Central America | Third Round
Sep 3, 2021 at 2.05am UK
 
Costa Rica national football team

Panama
0 - 0
Costa Rica

FT

Brenes Rojas (77')

Preview: Panama vs. Costa Rica - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - North Central America clash between Panama and Costa Rica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

The final phase of World Cup 2022 qualifying in the CONCACAF region begins this week as Panama play host to Costa Rica in their first match on Thursday at Estadio Rommel Fernandez Gutierrez in Panama City.

The Panamanians were able to squeak past Curacao 2-1 on aggregate in their second-round tie, while Los Ticos earned a bye into the Octogonal phase because they were ranked in the top five in the region.


Match preview

Panama manager Thomas Christiansen pictured in 2018© Reuters

After making their first World Cup appearance in 2018, Los Canaleros will hope to make it back into this competition for a second successive time.

They started poorly in the final qualifying phase four years ago, winning only one of their first seven games but were still able to claim the final spot in CONCACAF with two wins over their last three matches.

As great as it was for them to make it to the World Cup in Russia, their qualification was marred in controversy, as their winning goal in their final qualifier versus the Costa Ricans would not have counted had there been goal-line technology in place because their 88th-minute goal did not cross the line.

In the opening phase of qualifying this time around, Thomas Christiansen helped guide his team to a comfortable first-place finish in Group D, winning all four of their games, scoring 19 goals and conceding only one.

At the Gold Cup in July, Panama showed what a potent side they can be in front of goal, scoring eight times in their three matches, but they still failed to make it to the knockout stage.

Their performance at that tournament indicated that they need to tighten up defensively, as they were really vulnerable in transition in all three of their matches, conceding seven goals.

Even though many people might want to put an asterisk on their qualification in 2018, Panama proved that they are capable of beating an elite and experienced CONCACAF side like Costa Rica, defeating them in an international friendly in San Jose, in October of last year.

Keylor Navas in action for Costa Rica on June 3, 2018© Reuters

Since the new millennium, Costa Rica have qualified for every World Cup, finishing in the top three in the Hexagonal phase of qualifying in each of their past five campaigns.

This experienced side have played together for quite some time, and they will be out to prove that they have it in them to make it back to the World Cup, despite being one of the older sides remaining.

Their new manager, Luis Fernando Suarez, was brought in to help re-invigorate this struggling team, who had gone winless in their first five games of 2021 before his arrival.

The Colombian coach knows a thing or two about making it to the World Cup, guiding Ecuador to the finals in 2002 and 2006, before leading Honduras to the tournament finals in 2014.

Suarez began his tenure as Costa Rican manager with two victories at the group stage of the Gold Cup earlier this year, but as the tournament wore on, fatigue seemed to get the better of his veteran players who looked flat in their 2-0 quarter-final defeat to Canada.

They have not lost an opening match at this stage of qualifying in their last three campaigns, and they will want to improve their form in front of goal this time around, as they followed up their 2-0 defeat to Canada with a 0-0 draw in a friendly against El Salvador.

Costa Rica have had the luxury of having played most of the eight remaining teams in CONCACAF qualifying already this year, having faced Mexico twice and playing the USA, Canada, Honduras, Jamaica and El Salvador in 2021, winning only once, 1-0 against the Reggae Boyz.

Panama World Cup Qualifying - North Central America form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D

Panama form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W

Costa Rica form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D



Team News

Brazil's Casemiro in action with Panama's Michael Murillo during an international friendly on March 23, 2019© Reuters

Rolando Blackburn scored twice for Panama in their Gold Cup campaign, while Cecilio Waterman notched three goals in the opening two rounds of qualification, including the decisive goal in their second-round tie versus Curacao.

Nashville SC midfielder Anibal Godoy did not feature at the Gold Cup for the Panamanians but is on the roster for this qualifying phase, having earned 106 caps for his country, which puts him two back of Luis Tejada for seventh, while his teammate Alberto Quintero is sixth with 112 appearances.

Christiansen chose two uncapped players for their qualifier this week, including defenders Ivan Anderson and Jorge Gutierrez.

Goalkeeper Keylor Navas should get the start in goal for the Costa Ricans after he skipped the Gold Cup, as Leonel Moreira and Esteban Alvarado each played two matches in that competition, but Navas was instrumental at this stage of the 2018 qualification round, collecting four clean sheets.

Striker Joel Campbell is tied with Michael Umana for eighth all-time in appearances for his country with 103, which is still well behind midfielders Bryan Ruiz (132) and Celso Borges (138).

It will be an odd feeling for Costa Rica midfielder Randall Leal playing against his Nashville club mate and one of his partners in midfield in MLS, Anibal Godoy, while 18-year-old Jewison Bennette earned his first international cap for his side in their 0-0 draw with El Salvador earlier this month.

Panama possible starting lineup:
Mejia; Davis, Escobar, Murillo, Andrade; Godoy, Carrasquilla; Rodriguez, Barcenas, Quintero; Blackburn

Costa Rica possible starting lineup:
Navas; Oviedo, Calvo, Duarte, Matarrita; Leal, Lassiter, Ruiz, Borges; Campbell, Moya


SM words green background

We say: Panama 1-0 Costa Rica

This is a classic battle of youth versus experience, with the Costa Ricans holding a decided edge in terms of games played, as their eight most experienced players have more international caps than the entire Panamanian roster picked for this match.

Costa Rica may have more experience but what we saw at the Gold Cup was a side who struggled to contain the youth and speed of their opponents, which should give Panama an edge, and aside from Joel Campbell, no other striker chosen for Los Ticos for this game have scored an international goal.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Written by
Joel Lefevre

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Panama win with a probability of 42.03%. A win for Costa Rica had a probability of 33.99% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Panama win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.68%) and 2-0 (6.2%). The likeliest Costa Rica win was 1-2 (7.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Panama vs Costa Rica

Panama
50.0%
Draw
11.1%
Costa Rica
38.9%
36
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The Panama team lines up ahead of their World Cup warm-up game with Northern Ireland in May 2018
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