PAOK and Gent will lock horns in Thessaloniki at the Stadio Toumbas for the first leg of their Europa Conference League last-16 tie on Thursday night.
The hosts have not lost on home soil in any competition since early December, while the visitors are yet to taste defeat on the road in 2022.
Match preview
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After finishing second in Group F earlier this season, PAOK were facing an uphill battle to advance to the last 16, following their 1-0 defeat against FC Midtjylland in the first leg of their playoff tie, a result which ended their 14-game unbeaten run across all competitions.
However, they managed secure a 2-1 victory in the second leg before winning 5-3 on penalties, with the club's top goalscorer Jasmin Kurtic, who has netted 17 times in 36 appearances this season, tucking away the decisive spot kick.
Razvan Lucescu's men are now competing in the last 16 in European competition for the first time in their history, having previously been eliminated from the UEFA Cup or Europa League on four occasions in the round of 32.
PAOK, who are currently 12 points behind Olympiacos at the top of the Greek Super League, will be confident of success on Thursday, as they are unbeaten in each of their last 12 home matches across all competitions, scoring at least twice on 11 of these occasions.
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While PAOK were forced into the playoff round before advancing to the last 16, Gent finished top of Group B after accumulating 13 points from their six matches, five more than Partizan in second place.
The Buffalos, who are the only Belgian team participating in the European knockout rounds this season, are now preparing for their first ever competitive contest against Greek opposition.
Gent are currently enjoying an impressive run of domestic form, as they have won each of their last six Belgian Pro League matches, which has seen them move up to fifth place and to within three points of the Champions League qualification places. Head coach Hein Vanhaezebrouck will now be keen to see his side carry over their league form into the Europa Conference League.
The last time the Buffalos reached the last 16 in the Europa League was in 2016-17 when they were beaten by fellow Belgian side Genk 6-3 on aggregate. In the previous season, they were also eliminated in the last 16, this time in the Champions League after losing 4-2 on aggregate to Wolfsburg.
Gent will now be looking to reach the quarter-finals in European competition for the first time since 1991-92, when they were defeated 3-0 on aggregate by Ajax in the UEFA Cup.
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Team News
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PAOK are still without striker Nelson Oliveira, who has been sidelined since August last year with an ACL injury, while winger Alexandru Mitrita is suffering with an ankle problem.
Lucescu will need to decide whether to start with either Malmo loanee Antonio Colak or English-born attacker Chuba Akpom as the lone striker – the former started in their 2-0 league win over Lamia last weekend, but the latter is the most likely to get the nod on Thursday.
Kurtic and Theocharis Tsigaras are set to begin in centre-midfield, while either Vieirinha or Sidcley is likely start at left-back, joining Eleftherios Lyratzis, Sverrir Ingi Ingason and Jose Angel Crespo in the back four.
As for Gent, their only injury concern is with forward Gianni Bruno, who is suffering with a muscle problem.
Vanhaezebrouck is set to name a similar starting lineup to the one which beat Club Brugge 3-0 in the second leg of their Belgian Cup semi-final last week, with Laurent Depoitre and Tarik Tissoudali to begin up front – the latter has scored 14 goals in 25 appearances across all competitions so far this season.
Ukrainian Roman Bezus is ready to play, despite Russia's ongoing invasion of his homeland, and the 31-year-old could be handed a start in an advanced midfield role ahead of either Vadis Odjidja-Ofoe or Andrew Hjulsager.
PAOK possible starting lineup:
Paschalakis; Lyratzis, Ingason, Crespo, Vieirnha; Tsiggaras, Kurtic; A. Zivkovic, Augusto, Biseswar; Akpom
Gent possible starting lineup:
Bolat; Hanche-Olsen, Ngadeu, Okumu; Samoise, De Sart, Kums, Fortuna; Odjidja-Ofoe; Tissoudali, Depoitre
We say: PAOK 1-1 Gent
PAOK will be keen to take an advantage from the first leg on home soil, though they will be aware of the threat Gent are likely to pose in the final third.
A cagey contest is set to be played out in Greece and with little to separate these two teams, a score draw could be on the cards.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PAOK win with a probability of 49.13%. A win for Gent had a probability of 25.79% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a PAOK win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.44%) and 2-0 (8.78%). The likeliest Gent win was 0-1 (7.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for PAOK in this match.
