Fast sinking Parma welcome an old acquaintance back to the Tardini dugout on Sunday, as eighth-placed Lazio visit a home side stuck in the Serie A relegation zone.
Roberto D'Aversa took charge for a second time earlier this week and must first pit his wits against the Biancocelesti's highly-rated head coach Simone Inzaghi.
Match preview
© Reuters
Following ongoing rumblings relating to the potential departure of coach Fabio Liverani, Parma officially reappointed D'Aversa as their 'new' manager on the same day as Liverani was finally fired.
D'Aversa, who first took over in 2016 and guided Parma all the way from Serie C to the top tier, left the club last summer after a fallout with the board. President Kyle Krause's decision may well have been influenced by the fact that the former Siena and Sampdoria midfielder is still contracted to the club until next year.
He returns with Parma down in 18th in the Serie A standings approaching the season's halfway point and things are looking fairly bleak for the Emilians this midwinter.
After the 3-0 midweek loss at Atalanta - their second successive three-goal reverse - shot-shy Parma have registered the fewest goals in the league this season. Moreover, ahead of Lazio's visit to Emilia-Romagna, the Crociati have failed to score at all in their last five Serie A home games.
A sum total of four shots on target from their past two outings demonstrates the size of the task facing their previously inspirational boss, who also faces fixtures with high-flyers Sassuolo, Napoli and Lazio again (in the cup) during the next month.
To add to their considerable troubles, Parma's key attacking players Yann Karamoh and Juraj Kucka have joined last season's talisman Gervinho on the injured list of late.
© Reuters
Lazio have few such troubles in front of goal, with Ciro Immobile back in top form - the Azzurri striker scoring again despite some concerns about his fitness ahead of their 2-1 win over Fiorentina on Wednesday.
The former Borussia Dortmund man has now failed to score just once in his last 12 appearances and particularly enjoys playing Parma, as he has been involved in five goals (four goals, one assist) in his last five Serie A games against the Gialloblu.
A balanced record of 25 goals both scored and conceded for Immobile's side, who sit just outside the European places at the moment, hardly tells the tale of a tumultuous first half of the campaign.
After a spate of positive COVID-19 tests, defensive lapses and a first qualification for the Champions League last 16 in two decades, coach Inzaghi will target a more serene start to 2021.
Lazio must surely take advantage of their current and historical superiority over Parma this week - they have only lost one of their last 11 Serie A matches at the Tardini - as the Rome derby follows next, before games with close challengers Sassuolo and Atalanta to end the month.
Parma Serie A form: DDLLLL
Lazio Serie A form: LDWLDW
Team News
© Reuters
Lazio coach Inzaghi is once more without Joaquin Correa, who has yet to recover from a calf injury, wing-back Mohamed Fares and long-term absentee, captain Senad Lulic.
Both Immobile and Luiz Felipe came off in the last match with Fiorentina and are minor doubts for the trip to Parma, so Vedat Muriqi stands ready to deputise for the 2019-20 Capocannoniere if needed.
Last time out, Thomas Strakosha returned in goal after a spell of bench-warming and should keep his place ahead of veteran stopper Pepe Reina, while fellow Liverpool old boy Lucas Leiva is back in central midfield for Gonzalo Escalante.
The injury list confronting home boss D'Aversa is intimidating, with defenders Simone Iacoponi and Yordan Osorio both out and key forwards Gervinho and Karamoh also missing through injury.
In addition, midfielders Kucka and Alberto Grassi are unavailable, so Parma's returning manager must improvise - with many expecting him to set up his XI in a 4-3-3 or 4-3-1-2 formation, depending on whether he pairs misfiring strikers Roberto Inglese and Andreas Cornelius or instead opts to replace Karamoh and Gervinho out wide.
Parma possible starting lineup:
Sepe; Laurini, Busi, Alves, Pezzella; Brugman, Hernani, Cyprien; Mihaila, Inglese, Kurtic
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Strakosha; Patric, Acerbi, Radu; Lazzari, Milinkovic-Savic, Leiva, Alberto, Marusic; Caicedo, Immobile
We say: Parma 0-1 Lazio
Parma just cannot buy a goal at the moment and even a change in management may not be able to shake up a shot-shy strikeforce against Lazio.
Even if the Biancocelesti are not at full gas on Sunday, the penalty area prowess of Immobile and Caicedo can steer them to a second successive league win - continuing their recent dominance over the struggling Gialloblu.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 57.62%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Parma had a probability of 19.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.74%) and 1-2 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.05%), while for a Parma win it was 1-0 (6.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
