Peru will be hoping to turn their fortunes around in World Cup qualification when they host Uruguay on Friday at the Estadio Nacional in Lima.
La Blanquirroja have failed to win each of their last seven international matches on home soil, while the visitors have lost just one of their last five away games.
Match preview
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Peru's hopes of qualifying for just their second World Cup tournament in 40 years is under threat after a disappointing start to their qualification campaign.
A 2-1 victory against Ecuador in their last qualifier ended a run of four successive defeats against Brazil, Chile, Argentina and Colombia, in which they conceded at least two goals in the process.
La Blanquirroja sit rock bottom of the South American standings, level on points with Venezuela, though they are just four points behind Friday's opponents Uruguay in fourth, who currently occupy the final qualification spot.
Since winning their last qualifier in June, Peru were a surprise package at the 2021 Copa America, reaching the semi-finals where they lost to eventual winners Brazil.
Ricardo Gareca will be hoping that their performances during this summer's tournament can be replicated in their upcoming World Cup qualifiers, starting against a Uruguay side who they have failed to beat in each of their last three meetings.
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Two-time world champions Uruguay have qualified for four of the last five World Cup tournaments but they still have plenty of work to do if they are to compete in Qatar next year, following an inconsistent start to their qualification campaign.
La Celeste alternated between victory and defeat in their first four matches before playing out goalless draws against Paraguay and Venezuela in their last two games.
Experienced head coach Oscar Tabarez, who has been in charge of the national team for the last 15 years, will be hoping his side can put together a more consistent run of form, starting on Friday against Peru.
Uruguay head into their game at the Estadio Nacional off the back of their quarter-final exit on penalties to Colombia in this summer's Copa America. Prior to that result in June, La Celeste had lost only three of their previous 16 games across all competitions.
Tabarez's men have a good record against Peru, having lost only one of their last nine meetings against them. Securing all three points in Lima would help consolidate their place in the top four, before facing Bolivia and Ecuador later this month.
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Team News
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Goalkeeper Pedro Gallese as well as defenders Alexander Callens and Marcos Lopez – who all play in the MLS – are set to feature in Gareca's starting lineup, as is Boca Juniors right-back Luis Advincula, who is just five appearances away from receiving his 100th cap.
Forward Gianluca Lapadula, who was the joint-top goalscorer at the Copa America with four strikes, is expected to start up front, though Raul Ruidiaz and 37-year-old Paolo Guerrero will be hoping to force their way into the first XI.
Attacking midfielder Sergio Pena should also feature, after finding the net seven times and providing three assists in the Eredivisie for Emmen last season.
Uruguay, meanwhile, will have to cope without Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani during this international break, two key members of their golden generation.
Suarez picked up a knee injury playing for Atletico Madrid last weekend, while Cavani is unable to travel as Manchester United – along with the other 19 Premier League clubs – are refusing to let their players travel to red list countries during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
Cruz Azul's Jonathan Rodriguez and Valencia's Maxi Gomez are now the two most senior forwards in Tabarez's squad and the pair are expected to lead the line on Friday.
Attacking midfielder Giorgian de Arrascaeta has been in good form for Brazilian outfit Flamengo, scoring nine goals and providing 14 assists in 26 appearances so far this season. The 27-year-old is likely to start in the number 10 role, with central midfielders Federico Valverde, Rodrigo Bentancur and Matias Vecino set to play in the middle of the pitch.
Peru possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Advincula, Santamaria, Callens, Lopez; Tapia, Yotun; Carrillo, Pena, Cueva; Lapadula
Uruguay possible starting lineup:
Muslera; Gonzalez, Gimenez, Godin, Vina; Valverde, Vecino, Bentancur; Arrascaeta; Rodriguez, Gomez
We say: Peru 1-2 Uruguay
With just four points accumulated from their opening six games, Peru cannot afford to drop too many more if they are to push for a qualification spot.
Their chances of success on Friday are slim, however, and we can see the visitors securing a narrow victory in Lima.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 57.34%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Peru had a probability of 18.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.14%) and 1-2 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.27%), while for a Peru win it was 1-0 (6.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.
Argentina
Uruguay
Ecuador
Colombia
Brazil
Paraguay
Bolivia
Venezuela
Chile
Peru
