Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City Under-21s win with a probability of 59.98%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 20.61% and a draw had a probability of 19.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.22%) and 3-1 (7.22%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (5.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.14%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stoke City Under-21s would win this match.