Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 40.15%. A win for Brighton & Hove Albion had a probability of 36.36% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.79%) and 2-0 (5.55%). The likeliest Brighton & Hove Albion win was 1-2 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.