Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 53.13%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 24.3% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.71%) and 0-2 (8.14%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 2-1 (6.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.42%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.