Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 71.95%. A draw had a probability of 16.3% and a win for Fulham had a probability of 11.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 3-0 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.47%), while for a Fulham win it was 1-2 (3.45%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.