Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 69.19%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 13.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.5%) and 1-3 (7.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.77%), while for a Nottingham Forest win it was 2-1 (3.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.