Rapid Vienna and Vitesse will square off in the Austrian capital on Wednesday in the first leg of their Europa Conference League knockout round playoff tie.
Vitesse reached this stage by finishing second in their group in the inaugural Conference League campaign, while their hosts dropped out of their Europa League group but salvaged a chance to compete in Europe's tertiary competition with a third-placed finish.
Match preview
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Rapid Vienna find themselves battling for a spot in the Europa Conference League round of 16 after failing to finish in the top two of their Europa League group.
Narrow victories over Genk and Dinamo Zagreb were not enough to see Die Grun-Weissen through, as they suffered defeats in the reverse fixtures of those games alongside a pair of losses to West Ham United.
They now head into the continent's third competition with the hopes of progressing to the knockout stage to lift their spirits after a difficult start to the season, with the 32-time Austrian champions currently sat fifth in the domestic top flight with an underwhelming tally of 24 points from 19 games by their own standards.
After an Austrian Cup quarter-final exit at the hands of Hartberg, Ferdinand Feldhofer's most recently met runaway leaders Red Bull Salzburg on home turf, and they were handed a 2-1 defeat despite leading through Filip Stojkovic until the hour mark.
Now looking to bounce back and get on the front foot in their home leg, Die Grun-Weissen welcome a Vitesse side also in concerning domestic form.
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The Dutch outfit have now lost four consecutive games across league and cup action, conceding 16 goals and scoring just once in the process, including back-to-back 5-0 thrashings heading into Wednesday.
Their place in this stage of the competition is also under slight controversy, as Tottenham Hotspur's postponement against group winners Rennes was met with a forfeit, seeing the English side finish three points behind Vitesse.
However, Thomas Letsch's side did battle for their progression, picking up an eye-catching 1-0 win over Tottenham on home turf in October alongside a pair of victories over Mura and a creditable 3-3 draw with Rennes in France.
They will now look to post a positive away result in their bid to reach the final 16 of the first Conference League season before welcoming the Vienna outfit to Arnhem next week.
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Team News
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Rapid Vienna should remain without Leo Greiml and Lion Schuster, as the duo continue spells in the treatment room.
Meanwhile, captain Maximilian Hofmann is a doubt, leaving Friday's starting XI against Red Bull Salzburg in his absence as the possible blueprint for the first leg.
Exciting young forward Yusuf Demir will hope to be given a chance in the XI, while former Tottenham Hotspur centre-back Kevin Wimmer is another candidate to be handed a starting berth.
After consecutive 5-0 thrashings, Thomas Letsch may look to make alterations to his Vitesse side to inspire a change in form.
Following his return to the starting XI last time out, Lois Openda should again play a role in the attack, having netted two goals in the Conference League group stage alongside 11 goals in 22 Eredivisie appearances so far this term.
He will likely support striker Adrian Grbic, who arrived on loan from Lorient in the January transfer window.
Riechedly Bazoer will continue to play an important role in possession, with the Dutch midfielder dropping into the centre of a back three.
Rapid Vienna possible starting lineup:
Gartler; Schick, Wimmer, Moormann, Auer; Aiwu; Petrovic, Grahovac; Oswald; Demir, Grull
Vitesse possible starting lineup:
Houwen; Doekhi, Bazoer, Rasmussen; Dasa, Bero, Domgjoni, Wittek; Frederiksen, Grbic, Openda
We say: Rapid Vienna 2-1 Vitesse
With both sides keen to bounce back to form while looking to avoid a harmful defeat in the first leg, we expect this to be a cagey encounter.
We do, however, give the Austrian giants a slight advantage, given their quality and the need to pick up a result on home turf before they travel to the Netherlands.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 42.38%. A win for Rapid Vienna had a probability of 34.96% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.1%) and 0-2 (5.41%). The likeliest Rapid Vienna win was 2-1 (7.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Rapid Vienna in this match.
