Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 50.26%. A win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 25.32% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.58%) and 2-0 (8.7%). The likeliest FC Krasnodar win was 0-1 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that CSKA Moscow would win this match.