Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rubin Kazan win with a probability of 42.06%. A draw had a probability of 29% and a win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 28.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rubin Kazan win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.42%) and 2-1 (8.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.24%), while for an Arsenal Tula win it was 0-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rubin Kazan would win this match.