Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rubin Kazan win with a probability of 42.7%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 29.9% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rubin Kazan win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 0-1 (9.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Rubin Kazan in this match.
