Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 36.75%. A win for Akhmat Grozny had a probability of 36.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.09%) and 2-0 (6.4%). The likeliest Akhmat Grozny win was 0-1 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sochi would win this match.