Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 39.99%. A win for Ural Yekaterinburg had a probability of 31.84% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.15%) and 0-2 (7.6%). The likeliest Ural Yekaterinburg win was 1-0 (10.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.