Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Greenock Morton win with a probability of 37.16%. A win for Inverness Caledonian Thistle had a probability of 34.03% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Greenock Morton win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.68%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Inverness Caledonian Thistle win was 0-1 (11.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Greenock Morton would win this match.