Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cartagena win with a probability of 38.02%. A win for Castellon had a probability of 33.01% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cartagena win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.73%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Castellon win was 0-1 (11.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cartagena in this match.