Serie A | Gameweek 21
Jan 11, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Sant'Elia
Cagliari2 - 1Bologna
We said: Cagliari 2-1 Bologna
Due to the severity of the visitors' COVID-19 outbreak, we are predicting a home win for Cagliari on Sunday, which would provide a huge boost to their survival hopes. With their opponents' squad facing a lack of fitness and preparation, they will not be given many better opportunities, although with some first-teamers still remaining available, a strong performance will still be required if they are to earn a crucial three points. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 41.53%. A win for Bologna had a probability of 33.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.22%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Bologna win was 1-2 (7.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Cagliari in this match.
| Result | ||
| Cagliari | Draw | Bologna |
| 41.53% | 24.48% | 33.99% |
| Both teams to score 59.14% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
