Serie A | Gameweek 33
Apr 23, 2025 at 5.30pm UK
Sardegna Arena
Cagliari1 - 2Fiorentina
We said: Cagliari 0-1 Fiorentina
Although Fiorentina have seen their away form dip over the past few months, they should be capable of beating low-scoring Cagliari in Sardinia. With several game-changers in their ranks, the Viola will surely unlock the Rossoblu's back line at least once. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 47.99%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 26.46% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.31%) and 0-2 (8.72%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 1-0 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cagliari | Draw | Fiorentina |
26.46% ( 0.16) | 25.56% ( 0.38) | 47.99% ( -0.54) |
| Both teams to score 51.45% ( -1.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.15% ( -1.43) | 51.85% ( 1.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.39% ( -1.25) | 73.61% ( 1.26) |
| Cagliari Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.63% ( -0.63) | 34.37% ( 0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 28.93% ( -0.68) | 71.08% ( 0.69) |
| Fiorentina Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.38% ( -0.82) | 21.62% ( 0.82) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 45.28% ( -1.27) | 54.73% ( 1.28) |
| Score Analysis |
Cagliari 26.46%
Fiorentina 47.98%
Draw 25.55%
| Cagliari | Draw | Fiorentina |
| 1-0 @ 7.94% ( 0.31) 2-1 @ 6.49% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 2.31% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.77% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 1.51% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.21% Total : 26.46% | 1-1 @ 12.15% ( 0.18) 0-0 @ 7.43% ( 0.42)2-2 @ 4.97% ( -0.14)3-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.55% | 0-1 @ 11.37% ( 0.36) 1-2 @ 9.31% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 8.72% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 4.75% ( -0.17)0-3 @ 4.45% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 2.54% ( -0.14)1-4 @ 1.82% ( -0.11)0-4 @ 1.7% ( -0.07)2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.35% Total : 47.98% |
How you voted: Cagliari vs Fiorentina
Cagliari
16.0%Draw
23.5%Fiorentina
60.5%81
Head to Head
May 23, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 38
Cagliari
2-3
Fiorentina
Bonaventura (39'), Gonzalez (89'), Arthur (90+13' pen.)
Mandragora (44'), Biraghi (45+3'), Ranieri (45+2'), Bonaventura (71'), N'Zola (89')
Mandragora (44'), Biraghi (45+3'), Ranieri (45+2'), Bonaventura (71'), N'Zola (89')
Oct 2, 2023 7.45pm
