Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 36.72%. A win for Ascoli had a probability of 33.48% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.35%) and 0-2 (7.15%). The likeliest Ascoli win was 1-0 (12.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for SPAL in this match.
