In the first round of fixtures of the new Portuguese Primeira Liga season, Pako Ayestaran's Tondela will play host to Santa Clara on Sunday.
The sides were only separated by 10 points last season, but given how tight the middle of the table was, Santa Clara finished sixth while their hosts ended in 12th spot.
Match preview
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Tondela's league campaign last season was defined by inconsistency, as they continuously bounced up and down within the bottom half of the table.
While they were never hugely threatened by the drop, a poor run of four defeats from their last five league games saw Ayestaran's side fall to 12th spot, just two points above Rio Ave in the relegation playoff place, only remaining safe thanks to the sides below them failing to capitalise.
CDT Auriverdes struggled at the back, with only basement side Nacional conceding more than the 57 goals that Tondela shipped in 34 league outings, and Ayestaran will be desperate for the upcoming season to bring improvements for his side.
The campaign did not get off to an overly positive start, though, as they were dumped out of the Taca da Liga by Gil Vicente in the first round and their first competitive game of the season.
That game looked set to end goalless, only for Carvalho to hit the winner in the 87th minute to knock Ayestaran's men out.
They will hope to put that behind them and start the league campaign in a positive manner, with the aim of steering well clear of the bottom three this year.
However, they face a tough test in the opening game, as they welcome a Santa Clara side who have already found their rhythm this season after a strong campaign last year.
Daniel Ramos guided Os Acoreanos to an impressive sixth-placed finish in the Portuguese top flight last season, with three straight victories at the end of the campaign firing them above Vitoria de Guimaraes.
As a result, they earned a place in the qualification phase for the inaugural UEFA Conference League competition, and Santa Clara comfortably progressed through the second round with a 5-0 aggregate victory over Shkupi.
They then took on Farense in the opening round of this season's Taca da Liga, and Os Acoreanos progressed by winning the penalty shootout after a goalless draw.
Last time out, Ramos's side took on Slovenian outfit NK Olimpija in the first leg of their third-qualifying-round tie, and they picked up an important 2-0 victory to take a huge advantage into the away leg, as Carlos and Mansur got on the scoresheet.
Having already played several important competitive games this season, they will be confident of starting the league campaign with a victory before they take on Olimpija in the second leg next week.
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Team News
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Tondela made several additions to their squad over the summer, including centre-back Manu Hernando and midfielder Iker Undabarrena, but both will miss out on Sunday as Hernando is dealing with a knee injury while Undabarrena recently tested positive for COVID-19.
They will certainly feel the loss of forward Mario Gonzalez, who hit 14 goals in 27 league appearances in a loan spell last season, and has since joined Braga.
Ayestaran has attempted to fill the gap left in their attack by signing Renat Dadashov on loan from Wolverhampton Wanderers, and the 22-year-old should be handed his league debut on Sunday.
Santa Clara's only absentee should be attacker Allano, who is out of action through injury.
That is another hit to the squad after the departure of winger Ukra in the summer, while crucial centre-back Fabio Cardoso also left for Porto.
New signing Mohamed Bouldini will hope for a starting spot in the front line, after he hit 14 goals in 29 league appearances for Coimbra in the Portuguese second tier.
Given their packed schedule of European football, Ramos may have to rotate his squad over the next few weeks, with the likes of Crysan and Lincoln potentially being handed rests while Costinha could come into the midfield.
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Trigueira; Bebeto, Goncalves, Quaresma, Khacef; Dantas, Augusto, Pedro; Agra, Dadashov, Barbosa
Santa Clara possible starting lineup:
Pereira; Sagna, Afonso, Villanueva, Mansur; Costinha, Morita, Carvalho; Carlos, Bouldini, Patric
We say: Tondela 1-2 Santa Clara
Despite battling fatigue, Santa Clara have already found their groove this season thanks to several continental victories, potentially setting them up in a much better way than their opponents, who lost their only game prior to the campaign.
Ramos has a deep squad at his disposal, and they should still have more than enough quality on the pitch to continue their positive run and start the league season with a win.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 36.53%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 33.85% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.38%) and 0-2 (7.07%). The likeliest Tondela win was 1-0 (12.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
