In a tantalising group finale, Tunisia play host to Zambia at the Stade Olympique de Rades in round two of the World Cup 2022 qualifiers on Tuesday.
Thanks to their superior goal difference, the Eagles of Carthage need to pick up maximum points to guarantee their place in the final qualifying phase as they currently sit level on points with Equatorial Guinea and three points above Tuesday's visitors.
Match preview
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Tunisia suffered a huge blow in their race for a place in the final qualifying phase as they fell to a shock 1-0 defeat at the hands of Equatorial Guinea last Saturday.
Despite being on the back foot for most of the game, Pablo Ganet came up trumps for the Nzalang Nacional when he netted the winner with seven minutes remaining.
Prior to that, Mondher Kebaier's side saw their run of three straight victories in the qualifiers come to an end when they were held to a disappointing 0-0 draw by Mauritania at the Stade Olympique back in October.
While this was their first defeat in the qualifiers, Tunisia have now failed to win back-to-back games for the first time since July 2019, when they fell to successive losses against Senegal and Nigeria in the Africa Cup of Nations.
With 10 points from five matches, the Eagles of Carthage currently sit top of Group B with a healthy goal difference, and to put their fate in their hands, they will need to secure all three points on Monday as they are currently level on points with second-placed Mauritania.
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Zambia, on the other hand, returned to winning ways last time out when they comfortably saw off Mauritania 4-0 at Lusaka's National Heroes Stadium.
After Leicester City forward Patson Daka opened the scoring shortly after the half-hour mark, Fashion Sakala put on an attacking show of class as he hit three goals to cap off a brilliant individual performance.
Prior to that, Beston Chambeshi's men snapped their two-game losing streak courtesy of a 1-1 draw with Equatorial Guinea, when Sakala and Federico Bikoro scored for either side to force a share of the spoils.
Zambia are currently third on the log after picking up seven points from five outings, and this has been owing to their struggles in attack, where they scored just three goals from their opening four outings.
While the Chipolopolo will be looking to close out their campaign on a winning note, they face the stern test of taking on an opposing side who they have failed to defeat in each of the last four meetings between the sides, picking up one draw and losing four in that by one.
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Team News
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Following a poor performance against a significantly less superior Equatorial Guinea side last time out, Kebaier could make a few changes to the starting lineup ahead of Tuesday's crunch tie.
However, Wahbi Khazri, who has netted seven goals in 11 games for Saint-Etienne in Ligue 1, should retain his place in the XI and lead the line once again.
With 22 goals in 63 appearances, the 30-year-old ranks second in the nation's all-time scoring charts and will definitely be one to look out for.
Fashion Sakala put on a superb individual performance against Mauritania last time out, when he hit three goals, and we expect the Rangers forward to lead the line for Zambia alongside Leicester City's Daka.
Meanwhile, Edward Chilufya and Enock Mwepu remain out of contention for Tuesday's game after both failing to recover from their respective injuries sustained at club level.
The Brighton & Hove Albion midfielder was forced off at half time in the Premier League game against Newcastle United on November 6 after sustaining a hamstring problem.
Tunisia possible starting lineup:
Nsabata; Silwimba, Chepeshi, Chanda, Mwape; Bande, Banda, Mosunda; Kangwa, Daka, Sakala
Zambia possible starting lineup:
Mustapha; Maaloul, Talbi, Bronn, Kechidra; Sassi, Slimane, Laidouni; Khazri, Rafia, Jaziri
We say: Tunisia 2-0 Zambia
Tunisia will be desperate to arrest their slump in form and return to winning ways as their chances of qualifying for the World Cup currently hangs on a thread. While a win takes Zambia level on points with the hosts, their hopes of finishing top of the group are all but over thanks to their significantly weaker goal difference. With that said, we anticipate a riveting contest with Tunisia taking the game to the visitors and claiming all three points.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tunisia win with a probability of 54.54%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Zambia had a probability of 21.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tunisia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 2-0 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.17%), while for a Zambia win it was 0-1 (6.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tunisia would win this match.
