England's run in the group stages was a far less taxing affair than Italy's, and fresh legs on the Three Lions' end could just tip the scales in their favour. While Foster was able to encase his star performers in bubble wrap on the final day, Italy boss Nunziata was not afforded such a luxury, and we expect England to come up trumps in a tense affair to book their spot in the quarters. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy Under-20s win with a probability of 40.83%. A win for England Under-20s had a probability of 31.7% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy Under-20s win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.41%) and 0-2 (7.59%). The likeliest England Under-20s win was 1-0 (10%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Italy Under-20s would win this match.

Result
England Under-20s	Draw	Italy Under-20s
31.7% ( 0.05)	27.47% ( 0.03)	40.83% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 48.68% (

-0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.18% (

-0.1)

56.82% (

0.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.25% (

-0.08)

77.75% (

0.08)

England Under-20s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.99% (

-0.02)

33.01% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.41% (

-0.02)

69.59% (

0.02)

Italy Under-20s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.67% (

-0.09)

27.33% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.21% (

-0.12)

62.79% (

0.12)

Score Analysis

England Under-20s 31.7%

Italy Under-20s 40.83%

Draw 27.47%

England Under-20s	Draw	Italy Under-20s
1-0 @ 10% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 7.19% ( 0) 2-0 @ 5.54% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 2.66% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.05% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.72% ( -0) Other @ 2.54% Total : 31.7%	1-1 @ 12.97% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.02% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 4.66% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.47%	0-1 @ 11.7% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.41% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 7.59% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.64% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 3.28% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.02% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.95% Total : 40.83%